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Apparently Sony Have Already Won


connerfitzgerald
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3544039.stm

Apparently someone has been hearing the Cell hype

The new consoles, expected by 2005, could have up to 1,000 times more processing power than current models and emphasise online gaming.

One slightly strange thing is that the article says that 70million ps2 have been sold (seems a little high) but then says that after 5 years of next gen consoles (in 2010) there will be only 50 million next gen consoles, which is against the growing trend of gaming in the last couple of generations

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If I were a betting man I'd put money on them being right, to be quite honest.

And I agree with them, the PS3 will outsell any other console by a long way, and that's obvious. (It really is).

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If I were a betting man I'd put money on them being right, to be quite honest.

And I agree with them, the PS3 will outsell any other console by a long way, and that's obvious. (It really is).

No-one knows that for sure. Sony may drop the ball.

It's just analyst bullshit.

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I think that the next generation will be more hotly contested than this one, particularly because all the consoles will launch at roughly the same time so that Sony won't have such a headstart as this generation

Sony will still probably sell the most, but they won't dominate to the same extent

edit :

"No-one knows that for sure. Sony may drop the ball.

It's just analyst bullshit."

My thoughts exactly, I hate these bastard analysts

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They have the Sony brand, they have all the support they need, they have more loyal fans, they have marketing brains.

The PS2 was quite possibly the worst console launch in history. That didn't stop it being one of the quickest and biggest selling consoles of all time.

They have EVERYTHING on their side and if you really think Sony will have a hard time then feel free to take it up with every single market analyst in the industry, because none will agree with you.

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No console manufactor has launched two successful generations well, except sony. Sega Failed, Nintendo failed (except the GB as that didnt really have anything to compete with). Its long overdue for sony to fail now.

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I'm with Soong.

Much as I dislike the PS2 for the overhyped underpowered turd that it is, I have no doubt I will dig deep and buy the PS3 (as will everyone else eventually).

Those who deny Sony an easy victory (by using the death of Sega for example), are kidding themselves.

The fight, if there is one, will be for second place.

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No console manufactor has launched two successful generations well, except sony. Sega Failed, Nintendo failed (except the GB as that didnt really have anything to compete with). Its long overdue for sony to fail now.

I don't buy this argument.

Why does "what happened ten years ago in a fairly different marketplace, with different companies" have anything to do with "what happens next"?

As Uncle Mike says, to paraphrase, if you were going to place your bets now (using *real* money :) )... where would you place them?

On a company who've been comprehensively trumped in the previous two hardware generations?

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Success next time is going to be measured in profits. Microsoft know they've got to make one, Nintendo can probably still make one and Sony will want to/need to continue its massive profits. Rather than who will win, who would you bet on making profits from their console and software combined?

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They can't buy out the competition in this industry though.

Thankfully true, but they do have the cash to buy a number of major third party developers. Do Microsoft actually have enough money to purchase EA. If they do and they did, then that would surely be game set and match.

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PS2 Fanboys might stick with PS2 and remember PS2 got poor game in first year, Also people with more than one console might ignore PS3. So if Microsoft and Nintendo get the launch right they might get in a roll, then suddenly mass market think PS3 is average.

But again Sony need big titles like GTA 4 or WE8 or Gran Turimso 5 to make it sell.

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Those who deny Sony an easy victory (by using the death of Sega for example), are kidding themselves.

The fight, if there is one, will be for second place.

But Sony have ultimately "won" the last 2 generations based on 3rd-party support and a huge head-start on the competitors consoles. Do you think they'll have that next time round? (Personally, I think that MS have already shown that they can pull away Western support from Sony, if need be).

And you have to take into account that it is already speculated that the PS3 will be incredibly difficult to program, whereas the GC2 and Xbox2 are using near identical PC-based hardware. How will this affect multi-format games?

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One slightly strange thing is that the article says that 70million ps2 have been sold (seems a little high) but then says that after 5 years of next gen consoles (in 2010) there will be only 50 million next gen consoles, which is against the growing trend of gaming in the last couple of generations

I read the article as referring to future sales in Europe alone, ie, total European console sales from 2005-2010 will be in the region of 47m. That would support the growth trend of recent generations, as well as the expected continued expansion of the European console market.

The PS2 70m figure is true, but based on shipments (like pretty much every other "sales" figure for hardware you'll come across) rather than actual into-the-hands-of-the-consumer sales. I'd say actual sales would be somewhere between 85% and 95% of the shipment figure (and closing, until Sony release new figures), but accurate information about real sales is just about impossible to obtain.

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What was wrong with NES -> SNES?

Well the snes didnt do as well as the NES and the N64 didnt do as well as the SNES. But sony released the PSone, and then the PS2 which is doing nearly as many sales as the original PSone and still has many more years of life in it. No manufactor bar Sony have released a second machine which did better than the first, they have always fallen, Atari, Commodor, Sega, Nintendo etc.

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I don't buy this argument.

Why does "what happened ten years ago in a fairly different marketplace, with different companies" have anything to do with "what happens next"?

As Uncle Mike says, to paraphrase, if you were going to place your bets now (using *real* money :) )... where would you place them?

On a company who've been comprehensively trumped in the previous two hardware generations?

I wouldn't place money on any of them at this stage because we don't have a clue what they're going to do. The reason to look historically is because it shows that market dominance even over two generations matters not if you fail to continue to evolve to the needs of the market place. Sony's dominance is down to an astute move to optical media and some fantastic marketing. That marketing has clearly lost its way - it's now surviving on brand alone, while at the same time pissing off many developers, particularly in the States, with its criteria for new products by favouring only the very biggest publishers who can afford to spend the most on development. That's simply unsutainable, Sony themselves know that, but they've not done anything yet to show how they intend tackling the problem.

To say they've already won is simply to start the backlash against them early.

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And you have to take into account that it is already speculated that the PS3 will be incredibly difficult to program, whereas the GC2 and Xbox2 are using near identical PC-based hardware. How will this affect multi-format games?

I really think this will be a key issue. There is another BBC article regarding the spiralling cost of game development, link here.

If porting games from PS3 to Xbox2 & GC2 really does prove to be as difficult (and thusly time consuming and costly) as it appears from the sheer technical differences of the PS3 to X2 &GC2, then I really can't see all three seeing the generation out. If third party support does go to Sony though, I think it's Microsoft who would be hurt the most, as people tend to buy Nintendo machines for Nintendo franchises, whilst the Xbox is relying very heavily on third party support, and if X2 doesn't offer backwards compatibility, then there may be less of a reason for people to stick with the Xbox brand, who originally flocked to it for it's higher specs and Halo.

Couple this with the fact that the current generation of consoles is probably graphically impressive enough to stop casual gamers from being that wooed by the next gen as easily, could lead to very slow games sales for the next gen, and at the estimated 20 - 30 million dollars development costs, one flop could close a developer down.

I also wonder what price the next generation will come out at? I mean the sheer processing and graphical chips included in these machines would surely rule out anything lower than 300 pounds.

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