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Football Thread 2020/2021

Gotters

By Gotters,
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glb

glb

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Adrock said:

Sky plumbing new depths with their pundit selection, how the fuck are Carragher and Ince supposed to give anything but Liverpool-centric opinion.


How the hell was Ince ever Liverpool captain. Only player I’ve disliked more at the club is Ruddock.

 

On a separate note, not long seen the BBC’s FA Cup promo... Newcastle Arsenal and Villa Liverpool are their live games. I get it, Premier League clubs bring ratings, but it would have been nice if, even for just one round, some lower league sides got some rare exposure. And more importantly, some crucial TV money.

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footle

footle

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Adrock said:

Sky plumbing new depths with their pundit selection, how the fuck are Carragher and Ince supposed to give anything but Liverpool-centric opinion.

Nah, turns out it’s a perfect pundit selection for this game.

”so, how shit are Liverpool then Jaime?”

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Ork1927

Ork1927

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Man City have got what looks like a very favourable run before they play Liverpool in early Feb.

 

4 of the bottom 5 - Brighton, West Brom, Burnley and Sheff United as well as Palace and Villa (not saying those two might not be a challenge). If 2 of those are their games in hand then they could be quite clear if they beat Liverpool depending on if Man U can carry on their form.

 

 

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Gabe

Gabe

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The way this season is going I'd expect Sheffield United to grab their first (and only) win of the season with a hammering of City, Liverpool to drop outside the European spots after a run of 7 without a win and Arsenal to romp away with the title after Man Utd blow it when Fernandes gets injured for a month :lol:

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Gigga

Gigga

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I was really willing to give Allardyce the benefit of the doubt, I thought he was a bit unfairly maligned at West Ham and I didn't think there was a chance of him being worse than Pulis but so far it seems like all the complaints about shit football are true and it's not even getting the results.

The board really have to take the responsibility for what is almost certainly going to be a relegation season. One of the biggest issues was their hesitance to spend money which ended up with huddersfield benching our new £15m striker for 3 months while we sorted out negotiations and our defensive leader being sold which gave us problems at both ends of the pitch.

It looked like Bilic was finally starting to get a team who barely scraped promotion up to speed with the Premier League, despite the only experienced addition to the squad being Ivanovic and they sacked him to bring in a manager who has no idea what to do with a group of largely lightweight, technical and pacey players.

The stupid part of it all though, is that as well as having to roll the dice on January signings they have also dispatched a manager who has proven that he has what it takes to win promotion from the Championship, which means the manager search starts again at the end of the season.

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Gotters

Gotters

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always like this table when the Athletic use it in stats articles - it takes xGOT (this is an extended 'on target' form of xG that measures shot quality and other factors to give a more accurate representation of what a keeper is facing) and then actual goals conceded, to see if a keeper is adding or costing their team. No point using xG as some of those shots off target, so this is measuring actual things that could have gone in and how the keeper is faring.

 

mendy_gk_stats.png

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Gotters

Gotters

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For stats like xG this is a relatively small sample of games as is only this season. 

 

In those few games Mendy started brilliantly with 5-6 clean sheets in a row under conceding at one point before slipping back and then over-conceding (but again small sample set).

 

Last season as a whole Guita was ranked right near the top, but the Liverpool game where Palace got tonked knacker the table above as despite the scoreline Liverpool scored well above their xG chances in that game.

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bradigor

bradigor

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39 minutes ago, Gotters said:

For stats like xG this is a relatively small sample of games as is only this season. 

 

In those few games Mendy started brilliantly with 5-6 clean sheets in a row under conceding at one point before slipping back and then over-conceding (but again small sample set).

 

Last season as a whole Guita was ranked right near the top, but the Liverpool game where Palace got tonked knacker the table above as despite the scoreline Liverpool scored well above their xG chances in that game.

 

We made up for that since!

 

Interesting to see stats done using shots on target. In Ice Hockey* tghey ONLY count shots the goaltender needs to save as actual shots. This allows them to create a couple of stats. 

 

Save %

GAA

 

Save % is based on the number of shots the goaltender faces and the number of saves he makes so;

 

Goaltender makes 497 saves from 578 shots = .859 Sv%
 

GAA is Goals Against average and is worked out on goals conceded across munites played. Easier in Hockey as minutes are easier to count due to every game being exactly 60 minutes (regular) and no out of play running clock. 

 

5 goals conceded in 180 minutes gives a GAA of 2.67 (with a game being 60 minutes in length)

 

What they don't do is work out using a good scoring chances. So a shot from a poor scoring area (eg: from the face off dot in the attacking zone) is worth the same as a shot taken from the slot (an imagined area around teh front of the goal between the face off circles). Which is annoying as they will record Shots and Scoring Chances as seperate things for team stats. 

I'd love to see more of these stats thrown up in general coverage of football, as it can produce some really interesting things. xG and xGoT are both better measures than Shots and Shots on target in my opinion. 

 

*Oh look this knob'ead is talking Ice Hockey again.

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feltmonkey

feltmonkey

Posted
Posted

Edit - @Gotters

 

Yeah, similarly the 6-1 in Spurs Vs Utd and 6-2 Utd Vs Leeds. Alison of course missed the 7-2 shelacking by Villa. Guita is a very good keeper, definitely. This is one of those occasions where you shouldn't let stats over-ride the evidence of your eyes.

 

That whole table is kind of misleading in one way or another. De Gea is having his best season in years, but is statistically crap, Pickford actually is crap, but is having a statistically decent season. You should never look at stats on their own without considering why they are saying what they are saying, and whether they are actually a bit off.

 

Mendy himself seems fine as a keeper. He stops the stuff you would expect a keeper to stop (which the table kind of confirms) but his main strength, and it's an important one, is that he is not Kepa.

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Gotters

Gotters

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It does say in the article that there have been too few games for this to be statistically meaningful at the moment - and the talk is always when I've read it from stats types that they should be the start of any conversation not the end of it - the data is there to inform and give areas where insight can be gained (or not as may be the case).

 

Xg is good for demonstrating simply team creativity and quality of chances, the GOT measure adds on that by showing how a team is converting those chances - but again the devil is in the detail. Xg is additive and a lot of people misunderstood Arteta going mad a couple of weeks ago talking about games Arsenal statistically 'should have won' despite creating worse xG than they conceded.

 

This is an additional level of modelling, if a striker misses an open goal from 1y out that chance probably has an xG of .99 or higher if going to more decimal places, reasonably that chance would go in - if you conceded lots of lower quality shots from your opponent on an additive xG basis it creeps up to a bigger number, but in modelling reasonably you may concede less goals than the xG indicates. I think they are simulating the matches after the event to come to that conclusion in the same way cricket teams simulate 1 day scoring rates and F1 teams do it for pitstops, probably on a Monte Carlo statistical basis.

 

At this point though its lost 'proper football men' who point to the scoreline and snort or talk about VAR.

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Dudley

Dudley

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gabe said:

It's surprising as loads of people say how good a 'keeper Guaita is - but not based on those stats he isn't.

 

I'm also not sure who is making the argument that Mendy has been anything other than 'ok'.

 

It's almost like made up stats don't actually tell you anything.

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Fry Crayola

Fry Crayola

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Posted
47 minutes ago, bradigor said:

Save % is based on the number of shots the goaltender faces and the number of saves he makes so;

 

Goaltender makes 497 saves from 578 shots = .859 Sv%

 

I'm actually angry with North America now because that's not a fucking percentage.

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Gotters

Gotters

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First of this weekends FA cup ties called off for Covid. Southampton v Shrews/Shrowsbury.

 

There simply isn't room in the calendar to accommodate rearranging loads of these ties so suspect they are going to start forfeiting them, which brings its own pressures for small clubs in need of TV money to keep quiet or turn a blind eye to a test or two.

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