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Nintendo Switch

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Nintendo's core business is games, they have very little else to focus on as a company. They have the handheld market tied up (and despite all the shrinkage, it's still a large enough market that Sony were prepared to throw a lot of money at trying to capture it), and they are coming off the back of one of the best selling home consoles of all time (and the DS which wasn't exactly bad either). Quite why anyone thinks they'd be the first to jump of the three players in the console space is beyond me - the other two would be far more likely bets going forwards (who thinks MS are going to continue to pump money into the XBox business if it doesn't hit a real winner in the next 2-3 generations for example).

In a week when they've just released one of the freshest new IPs for a while (Splatoon), it's odd that people seem so dead set that upping sticks and moving to the mobile arena is even remotely a good idea for either them [Nintendo] or us.

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That's some hella spin right there - ignore the Wii U and 3DS sales because guys, remember 2006? Remember how good the Wii and DS were? That's relevant, right? It's not like there's been massive shifts in the industry since then, like the rise of smartphones that have taken the kids + casuals market that made Nintendo successful back then.

The Xbone is selling PS2 levels, the PS4 is selling Wii levels - both are doing astoundingly well, that's a combined total that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. The Xbones stubborn failure to fail and conform to the wishes of PS4 fans pre-launch just shows how detached from reality this whole conversation is. The idea that no actually, those consoles are the ones doing badly is ridiculous. The Wii U already failed! No one else makes games for it! Stores refuse to stock it!

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That's some hella spin right there - ignore the Wii U and 3DS sales because guys, remember 2006? Remember how good the Wii and DS were? That's relevant, right? It's not like there's been massive shifts in the industry since then, like the rise of smartphones that have taken the kids + casuals market that made Nintendo successful back then.

The Xbone is selling PS2 levels, the PS4 is selling Wii levels - both are doing astoundingly well, that's a combined total that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. The idea that no actually, they're the ones doing badly, and not the device selling sub-Dreamcast levels is ridiculous.

I never said the others were doing badly did I? You're the one determined to spin things around to make it all doom. The last time Nintendo won a generation, and I mean *really* won was ooooo yeah, the last one. I don't think it's particularly stretching things to bring their very last machine(s) into the argument. It just highlights how cyclical the console space can be - and how writing one of the players off because they haven't won the current generation is proven madness. Plenty of left-bollocks have been lost betting against Nintendo, but that never seems to stop people blindly pronouncing they know best and their bollock is absolutely safe because Nintendo are really doomed this time.

In summary - nobody is bloody well doomed, and all this 'they should go mobile to save themselves' crap is just that, crap. There are winners (Sony) and losers (Nintendo) in this home console generation (and hey look, it's exactly the reverse in the handheld market). There will be in the next one as well. But anybody who thinks it's a foregone conclusion who they will be is just taking a punt (and was probably all over threads a few years back writing about how the PSP/Vita was going to blow the DS/3DS out of the water, or how the Wii was never going to sell because it was just a couple of GCs taped together).

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That's some hella spin right there - ignore the Wii U and 3DS sales because guys, remember 2006? Remember how good the Wii and DS were? That's relevant, right? It's not like there's been massive shifts in the industry since then, like the rise of smartphones that have taken the kids + casuals market that made Nintendo successful back then.

The Xbone is selling PS2 levels, the PS4 is selling Wii levels - both are doing astoundingly well, that's a combined total that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. The Xbones stubborn failure to fail and conform to the wishes of PS4 fans pre-launch just shows how detached from reality this whole conversation is. The idea that no actually, those consoles are the ones doing badly is ridiculous. The Wii U already failed! No one else makes games for it! Stores refuse to stock it!

Really?

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Reminder that literally no-one has any idea how Nintendo can get casual users back from phones and succeed. Every time this is asked no-one has an answer, because they refuse to recognise that Nintendo have failed in this regard.
"New devices" is always the answer, but why people will want these dedicated devices and £50 games in addition to their phone or under their TV is never explained. People don't want to acknowledge that Nintendo would need to go back to the Wii again, to a social gaming device with unique inputs and casual, accessible minigames - because they want nostalgia, and don't have nostalgia for Wii Fit like they do Zelda or Mario. Marketing is how they'll get in homes, even though if it were that simple they wouldn't need "new devices" and could just market the Wii U. Occasionally someone like Alex W will admit some problems, propose some cheapy bit of hardware, with cheapy games - some middleground in price between the 3DS and the iPhone designed to eke out a living in a collapsing handheld market a bit longer, that doesn't actually solve any of the core problems.
No one has the solution.

Really?

Yes, it even beat PS4 in NPD last month.

s9NwuSj.jpg

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Eh, what you posted doesn't contradict the chart? PS2 on that graph hits 19.5 million at 19 months, look at the bottom axis. The data is provided by the console manufacturers, so VGChartz is the wrong one here. It goes up to 14 months for current gen because it's an old chart.

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I don't know why you bother tilting at these windmills Johnny. No amount of facts and figures we'll ever convince the faithful that everything isn't a-ok. I remember the 3DS thread where certain posters were adamant that the smartphone explosion would never ever impact the handheld console market. I mean check out this sub Facebook 'lik dis if u cri evry time' image posted irony free in our very own Splatoon thread as reason to 'love' Nintendo.

UHwaUhB.jpg

So much wrong with it, it's hard to know where to start.

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Eh, what you posted doesn't contradict the chart? PS2 on that graph hits 19.5 million at 19 months, look at the bottom axis. The data is provided by the console manufacturers, so VGChartz is the wrong one here. It goes up to 14 months for current gen because it's an old chart.

You said "The Xbone is selling PS2 levels". What I posted contradicts that.

Here's another source:

http://www.bidnessetc.com/43101-taketwo-interactive-predicts-ps4-xbox-one-combined-sales-to-surpass-110-mil/

Take Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) has confirmed that the combined sales of Sony Corp.'s (NYSE:SNE) PS4 and Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Xbox One have reached 34 million.

Take away the PS4 sales (around 20 million) and you don't have "PS2 levels".

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I don't know why you bother tilting at these windmills Johnny. No amount of facts and figures we'll ever convince the faithful that everything isn't a-ok.

I don't think anyone is arguing everything is a-ok (from a sales perspective). But, to know that, you'd actually need to read posts instead of just throwing all the stupid 'fanboy' 'NDF' nonsense replies around on autopilot.
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Reminder that literally no-one has any idea how Nintendo can get casual users back from phones and succeed. Every time this is asked no-one has an answer, because they refuse to recognise that Nintendo have failed in this regard.

"New devices" is always the answer, but why people will want these dedicated devices and £50 games in addition to their phone or under their TV is never explained. People don't want to acknowledge that Nintendo would need to go back to the Wii again, to a social gaming device with unique inputs and casual, accessible minigames - because they want nostalgia, and don't have nostalgia for Wii Fit like they do Zelda or Mario. Marketing is how they'll get in homes, even though if it were that simple they wouldn't need "new devices" and could just market the Wii U. Occasionally someone like Alex W will admit some problems, propose some cheapy bit of hardware, with cheapy games - some middleground in price between the 3DS and the iPhone designed to eke out a living in a collapsing handheld market a bit longer, that doesn't actually solve any of the core problems.

No one has the solution.

Yes, it even beat PS4 in NPD last month.

s9NwuSj.jpg

I think the way you are framing it is odd. It is obvious that the WiiU hasnt been a success and that the 3DS hasnt managed to replicate the sales of the DS. I am ready to accept that the market has fundamentally shifted in the portable dept. and nobody may be able to sell as much, given the competition from Ipad/Android.

I dont think anybody is disputing that? If you can find evidence, go on and prove me wrong.

Now, on the other hand, this is a topic about Nintendo next console/portable hybrid.

My opinion on the NX is as follow: It is going to be a dedicated gaming device. Nintendo may have something in mind to get more third parties involved. They may well fail. If they fail, then they may have to consider something more drastic (such as developing for Android OS?). We'll see. It really depends on what they consider a failure!

What is your argument here again? Are you saying something substantially different from what I just stated? Are you simply saying that the NX as a dedicated gaming device is destined to fail? If so, we will have to wait and see right?

I your argument is more sophisticated than that, if you have some insight that I dont have that assures you what Nintendo is/is not going to do in the future, please explain it here in simple terms, or maybe PM me with the info, so that I may consider them carefully!

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I think I remember Miyamoto once completely denying there was an improved version of the NDS on the cards, while a year later either the DS lite or DSi was revealed.

A year later? It was the same day.

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Has there actually been anyone that went from platform owner to third party software successfully.

Short answer is nope, and having a think, the longer answer is also probably nope. But on the otherhand, the World's first ever third-party is currently, after 3.5 decades, still the World's biggest third-party, so being third-party only seems to work quite well if you know what you are doing and are well diversified across hardware platforms.

Edit - though I've just remembered that Activision did come close to bankruptcy at one point many years ago, saved by Bobby Kotick and the rest is history, must be the greatest turnaround story in games.

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To be fair, aren't there really only 2 (Atari and Sega) that have tried it. And Atari didn't really do it as the company that sold the consoles.

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I think comparisons to Sega without taking into account context are dumb.

Nintendo have a pretty small core gamer audience (see: Gamecube, Wii U selling less than Dreamcast), but excel in making accessible, fun games for all ages that have seen huge success appealing to kids and families that wouldn't normally play games, selling dozens of millions of units. Sega just had the first part.

Their problem is that audience isn't buying their several hundred dollar devices and so don't have access to the games locked to them - they have phones that do what handhelds as a rider for effectively free, and the Wii U isn't a social device you break out at parties as the Wii was - you see people of all ages all talking about Crossy Road in the same way that you used to with Wii Sports.

If Nintendo want access to that group again, they can try their hand at Wii 2 and more casual games again and hope that the concept of motion controls hasn't gotten old (I'd say Move and Kinect show it kinda has). Or they can remain a second console for nostalgic dads that shrinks every gen, until it's impossible for their games to sell enough to break even (this has already happened for their less profitable franchises).

Or they can go where that audience is and make accessible, fun games for all ages there.

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To be fair, aren't there really only 2 (Atari and Sega) that have tried it. And Atari didn't really do it as the company that sold the consoles.

SNK sort of did it, Hudson Soft always had a foot in both camps (NEC were marginal as a software publisher), 3DO did it, and Bandai dabbled as a platform holder. The only one of those lot I'd consider successful (as in the one metric to rule them all) would be Bandai, but they never fully committed and married into a more established successful third-party publisher, the other 3 are irrelevant now.

Companies have more success going the other way, Sony and Microsoft both did games software before taking a punt on being a platform holder, and Microsoft had the better line-up, Sony were fairly unremarkable as a software publisher before PlayStation.

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Or they can go where that audience is and make accessible, fun games for all ages there.

The DeNA deal in a nutshell, except with the added belief by Nintendo that they will be a gateway drug to level up smart devices players to fulltime Nintendo believers, which coincidentally enough is one of the slang terms used by Japanese forumgoers for Nintendo fans, better than what Xbox/Sony fanboys get called I suppose.

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This topic will probably have run its course before that time, or Nintendo will have woken up to reality, place your bets on which is more likely.

So what exactly is your take on this oh mighty SMD? Apart from nothing is majorly wrong and don't bet against Nintendo, which is the position I assume you take.

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No I reckon gaming in a traditional way will shrink to niche hobbyist levels, with more emphasis on indies and crowd funding. I just wonder how you guys don't get bored of restating the same points. It's kind of impressive in a way.

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If that is what you truly believe, then Nintendo is doomed, they aren't built to be a niche provider, they are still a gigantic whale of a company still which needs feeding many, many souls.

Despite, as you say, restating the facts, it seems people still refuse to even accept that the arguments put forth have merit. If I didn't read the same viewpoints years later and with the situation still not good, I'd probably not have to bother, because I don't believe the odds are great, and they haven't been great for ages.

But back on topic, NX, we are still none the wiser on what game changing strategy Nintendo are going to put forth for it and they are so bloody-minded, it'll take some proper financial pain before they capitulate.

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But back on topic, NX, we are still none the wiser on what game changing strategy Nintendo are going to put forth for it and they are so bloody-minded, it'll take some proper financial pain before they capitulate.

What are you even saying here? Their success is harming them?

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More entertaining than actually playing games?

I'm not playing games when at work m8.

It really doesn't make a difference if people choose to accept it or not. That's why it's boring.

No-one is forcing you to read these threads.

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