Nintendo Wii U

[squirtle]

I think they will be plenty of people who are excited about the successors to the 360/PS4 and you'll glad get those systems at launch who haven't touched the Wii U. The Wii U is not a next gen system, it's basically on par, so far at least, with what we see on the 360 and PS3 all the time.

Those people saying that the poor sales of the Wii U is concerning for the future of consoles are missing the point that the Wii U wasn't really a jump in power and doesn't have much to distinguish it from the current consoles. I think they'll be a lot more excitement amongst gamers about the launches of the next consoles and that will filter through to the mass market. Imagine the people who see the first proper Call of Duty next gen game and jump on board.

But the expected release date for the PS4 is end of this year for North America and Japan and Early 2014 for Europe. A bit like the PS3, probably, November and March releases. Do you think that all those European COD players are just going to sit on their hands waiting for March so they can play the game with the rest of the world? Or do you think they'll buy the game in November when it arrives and won't even contemplate the next generation until at the very earliest, a year later?

[Not Thread Owner]

Pokemon Rumble U coming to the Wii U eShop:

http://www.officialnintendomagazine.co.uk/46735/pokemon-rumble-u-release-date-spring-2013-in-japan/

[McCoy]

But the expected release date for the PS4 is end of this year for North America and Japan and Early 2014 for Europe. A bit like the PS3, probably, November and March releases. Do you think that all those European COD players are just going to sit on their hands waiting for March so they can play the game with the rest of the world? Or do you think they'll buy the game in November when it arrives and won't even contemplate the next generation until at the very earliest, a year later?

So the hardcore will buy at launch and the casuals will buy a year later. That's not a problem. The problem that the Wii U has is that the hardcore gamers aren't terribly interested in it and the casual players will see these spankly new systems launch later in the year and wait to buy them instead of an old system which hasn't set the world alight.

I predict that there will be a lot more excitement from many different quarters about the release of the next gen systems. We weren't really that excited about Wii U here whereas I predict the first pretty next gen launch title will be purchased by many here simply because it is new and very pretty.

[b00dles]

I think the majority of CoD players aren't going to see a noticeable £450 (or whatever) difference unless something particularly novel happens like illumiroom, Oculus or Sony's goggles thingy. If, for arguments sake, it's 60fps at 1080p and has loads of cool particle effects, most people probably won't be able to see a difference.

It's going to be a much harder sell than SD to HD, imho. We'll all buy one but I just can't see it being huge release window sales for either of them.

Also if EU only gets PS4 next year as has been suggested (and who knows when MS are going to release) then it looks like next christmas will be when the bigger sales happen.

[SMD]

The problem is that hardcore gamers aren't numerous enough, Charles. If everyone on rllmuk bought one machine and the same copies of every game, it would be a drop in the ocean. Hell, if everyone on GAF did that you might get a little bump for one week and that would be it. For every person you know who's actively interested in gaming, there are maybe 10 or even 100 you don't know who game according to the following criteria:

- is it out on a system I already own?

- can I split the cost with one or more other people?

- how will this affect my other hobbies?

I know someone who you could quite feasibly call a gamer, he plays games a lot and is relatively clued up about what's coming out. He's only got a PS3 and maybe when they announce the next gen machines he'll get a 360. That's how the market works. Early adopters are rarely a concrete sign. Go by the forum and barely anyone has a Wii U, let alone plays on it. Yet the hardware numbers are doing well, historically.

You could call it NDF or whatever but I enjoy all the consoles I own for different things. I'd hate to lose that freedom of choice and I'm worried about the current state of the market. I'm the sort of person that'd enjoy a B game but they're usually priced the same as a triple A title. Publishers seem intent on sticking to this start high and bring the price crashing down - it's a behaviour that means that I rarely buy games new unless I know it's not dropping in price. Ironically this means I'd rather preorder Nintendo titles because they hold their value.

So the way I see it, the market is widening the chasm between AAA and indie/eShop/XBLA/PSN. There shouldn't be any difference really, some digital only games have been fantastic, but mentally I can't get away from it. Us 'hardcore' gamers aren't enough to affect this trend. People who don't game so much will pick up the odd AAA title and that's enough for them - and it's enough for the titles that sell. For those that don't, we're not enough. That's the worry.

Basically a Call of Duty on next gen machines isn't suddenly going to give companies the install base they're looking for. If the first one to drop on next gen consoles will even differ much from the current gen - it's not like last time out there was a huge leap, so many PS2 ports...

[rgraves]

So the hardcore will buy at launch and the casuals will buy a year later. That's not a problem. The problem that the Wii U has is that the hardcore gamers aren't terribly interested in it and the casual players will see these spankly new systems launch later in the year and wait to buy them instead of an old system which hasn't set the world alight.

I predict that there will be a lot more excitement from many different quarters about the release of the next gen systems. We weren't really that excited about Wii U here whereas I predict the first pretty next gen launch title will be purchased by many here simply because it is new and very pretty.

I love the way you aparently talk for the entire <sigh>hardcore</sigh> audience when you say "We weren't really excited". I don't think it's that cut and dried at all. In fact, it's, as I always say, a software issue not a hardware one - I think a much bigger population of this communcity for example will become interested once the new Mario or Zelda is revealed - and that won't be because the hardware is any different at that point.

Any hardware platform needs software to drive it along - Sony and MS will be no different when they launch their new machines - if they can't instantly demonstrate a real reason for people to upgrade then they'll face the same battle that Nintendo are right now.

We had the leap from SD to HD last time out - it was easy for people to see that (and on the one platform that didn't make that leap there was motion control to provide the equivalent differentiator). Sony and MS need to come up with something that has the same level of impact - because they don't have that easy resolution upgrade this time out.

I'm not saying they won't - I'm just saying that I'm not certain that the pure graphical upswing alone in this next gen will be big enough to really make it irresistable for the mass market to spend £400+ and move from where they are right now.

[Smitty]

We had the leap from SD to HD last time out

Er, we had a little more than a resolution upgrade. There's little thing called graphics, they got a lot better too.

[Venice Cull]

the danger now is that two big consoles are launching at the same time, and will likely share a lot of the same 3rd party content. They're hedging their bets just now with both... but within 3 months, one is clearly going to lead the other initially and they'll start to drop projects on the other ones.

That is the absolute opposite of what will happen. Cross platform launches will always be the norm where the platforms are similar, regardless of the balance of power. Even the PC as a platform gets the 'may as well' conversion now.

[Smitty]

(and on the one platform that didn't make that leap there was motion control to provide the equivalent differentiator

The Wii didn't just not make the resolution leap, it didn't make the graphical leap.

[Harsin]

Take a shot every time Scott or Rgraves say 'The WiiU/3DS is selling better than X in the same time period'. Die of liver failure by the end of the week.

[Smitty]

Sony and MS need to come up with something that has the same level of impact - because they don't have that easy resolution upgrade this time out.

Easy? Do you think the development challenges going from last gen to this gen were just dialling up the resolution button or something?

And Sony and MS will have something that has an impact - hugely improved graphics. That's leaving aside whatever new features they have with Kinect 2/Move 2 (and whatever else), and of course great third party support for all the games the mass market love.

Of course you ignore that because you're purposefully moved to exclude that by pretending the only difference in the current gen was resolution, which is a ridiculous notion.

I think a lot of the mass market don't even 'get' stuff like resolution. What they do get is that their new console has much better graphics than their last one.

No-one, repeat no-one, is going to see amazing new visuals on the 720/PS4 and say ''oh but it's still 1080p, no sale''. I doubt that many are going to say 'meh' either or 'gee the generational leap in visuals is markedly smaller, no sale''.

The mass market loves good graphics and spectacle, look at the success of COD. If there's a next gen COD that looks totally ridiculous graphics wise, people will be all over it,

[Epcotman]

You are aware that the WiiU has sold faster than the PS4 and 360 did at launch aren't you?

Scott's right; the PS4 has sold FUCK ALL.

[squirtle]

That is the absolute opposite of what will happen. Cross platform launches will always be the norm where the platforms are similar, regardless of the balance of power. Even the PC as a platform gets the 'may as well' conversion now.

Will that happen though if one starts to drag behind?

The mass market loves good graphics and spectacle, look at the success of COD. If there's a next gen COD that looks totally ridiculous graphics wise, people will be all over it,

Not in Europe this Christmas, they won't.

[Clipper]

The mass market loves good graphics and spectacle, look at the success of COD. If there's a next gen COD that looks totally ridiculous graphics wise, people will be all over it,

Dont these two things contradict each other... COD is known to sacrifice graphical fidelity to attempt to stick to a 60fps rate? So if people buy "shiny shiny" then why buy COD?

there are tons and tons of prettier shooters in current gen.

Not saying thats bad at all by the way, just that sentence isnt a good example

[rgraves]

Er, we had a little more than a resolution upgrade. There's little thing called graphics, they got a lot better too.

The Wii didn't just not make the resolution leap, it didn't make the graphical leap.

I didn't deny either of those things at all - your apparent insatiable quest to find something in every posting of mine to argue about is unnerving.

[squirtle]

I never got that. The COD games, especially the latest ones, look great to me. Just because they're running at sub 720p doesn't stop them from looking really nice.

[Smitty]

Not in Europe this Christmas, they won't.

So? Then later.

This discussion is hilarious. Nintendo fans have finally acknowledged that the WiiU is struggling (Iwata isn't considering resignation for nothing), but instead of focussing on that they have instead decided that the real problem is that the whole industry is fucked, and they've turned into self-conscious Cassandras bemoaning just how blind the rest of us are.

[squirtle]

Is Iwata considering resigning? That's a genuine question, by the way. Got a link for that?

[SMD]

So? Then later.

This discussion is hilarious. Nintendo fans have finally acknowledged that the WiiU is struggling (Iwata isn't considering resignation for nothing), but instead of focussing on that they have instead decided that the real problem is that the whole industry is fucked, and they've turned into self-conscious Cassandras bemoaning just how blind the rest of us are.

So we're just imagining publishers and devs going to the wall in every increasing numbers?

Or did everyone who bought a Wii U enter some Nintendo mind control phenomenon that is unique to Nintendo owners only?

[Smitty]

Dont these two things contradict each other... COD is known to sacrifice graphical fidelity to attempt to stick to a 60fps rate? So if people buy "shiny shiny" then why buy COD?

I know what you mean, but the bottom line is that COD looks great to most people, and I think they perceive that 60fps as part of the graphical sheen of the game. That particular realistic look is very popular.

If people see a video for Modern Warfare 5 and it's some crazy-ass Crysis 3 looking thing, they will got nuts for that.

[scottcr]

I'm working on my ongoing narrative going into the next round of sales thread funs

[SMD]

Is Iwata considering resigning? That's a genuine question, by the way. Got a link for that?

He hinted at it if Nintendo didn't achieve 100 billion yen operating profit this year.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130131qa/03.html

[Smitty]

I didn't deny either of those things at all - your apparent insatiable quest to find something in every posting of mine to argue about is unnerving.

You want to respond to the rest of my points at all?

Like the bit where no-one outside of your imagination is going to see PS4 stuff and say ''1080P? Fuck that''.

[SMD]

I know what you mean, but the bottom line is that COD looks great to most people, and I think they perceive that 60fps as part of the graphical sheen of the game. That particular realistic look is very popular.

If people see a video for Modern Warfare 5 and it's some crazy-ass Crysis 3 looking thing, they will got nuts for that.

If people see it'll cost them £450+ to get it as opposed to £39.99 on their current machine, they won't.

[joffocakes]

What games do "hardcore" gamers play theys days?

[squirtle]

So? Then later.

That'll be a year later then. In which time, we will see similar discussion to the ones going on at the moment if the PS4 and 720 are only selling in the same numbers as the Wii U?

This discussion is hilarious. Nintendo fans have finally acknowledged that the WiiU is struggling (Iwata isn't considering resignation for nothing), but instead of focussing on that they have instead decided that the real problem is that the whole industry is fucked, and they've turned into self-conscious Cassandras bemoaning just how blind the rest of us are.

Again, there's nothing of the sort going on. I mean, are you some kind of prophet from the future who knows that the 720 and PS4 are going to be massive successes? What are you basing that on? GRAFIX!!! seems to be your only argument. Others have offered counter arguments like the state of the economy and more drains on people's money in a much more crowded entertainment market than 6-7 years ago when the 360/PS3 launched.

But no, it's just people crying doom and gloom and the death of gaming!

And you accuse other people of hyperbole?

[mushashi]

Early adopters are rarely a concrete sign. Go by the forum and barely anyone has a Wii U, let alone plays on it. Yet the hardware numbers are doing well, historically.

You could call it NDF or whatever but I enjoy all the consoles I own for different things. I'd hate to lose that freedom of choice and I'm worried about the current state of the market. I'm the sort of person that'd enjoy a B game but they're usually priced the same as a triple A title. Publishers seem intent on sticking to this start high and bring the price crashing down - it's a behaviour that means that I rarely buy games new unless I know it's not dropping in price. Ironically this means I'd rather preorder Nintendo titles because they hold their value.

So the way I see it, the market is widening the chasm between AAA and indie/eShop/XBLA/PSN. There shouldn't be any difference really, some digital only games have been fantastic, but mentally I can't get away from it. Us 'hardcore' gamers aren't enough to affect this trend. People who don't game so much will pick up the odd AAA title and that's enough for them - and it's enough for the titles that sell. For those that don't, we're not enough. That's the worry.

Basically a Call of Duty on next gen machines isn't suddenly going to give companies the install base they're looking for. If the first one to drop on next gen consoles will even differ much from the current gen - it's not like last time out there was a huge leap, so many PS2 ports...

No licensee is looking at the hardware numbers, they're all looking at the sales numbers for non-Nintendo software titles, which are weak, hence the comments Mario Wynands heard at DICE (get why he uses that username now?) and if you look at his pessimism about consoles in general, the market isn't big enough to support 3 players in his view. The X360 did worse hardware numbers at launch (due to shortages) but way better software numbers for licensee titles.

The pricing thing has been talked about before, it's retailers fault for training customers to expect it, and the industry's fault for allowing it to get this bad, as Iwata told them this would happen back in 2006, and thus it did.

[Smitty]

If people see it'll cost them £450+ to get it as opposed to £39.99 on their current machine, they won't.

Why did anyone buy a 360 or PS3 then? I mean, they could carry on playing Halo 2 for the rest of their lives presumably.

They wouldn't have to spend £300+ to play Halo 3, no?

[McCoy]

Er, we had a little more than a resolution upgrade. There's little thing called graphics, they got a lot better too.

Exactly. It's like saying that there wasn't much of a difference between the N64 and the Gamecube because the resolution remained the same.

It's always the same, we get to the end of the generation and people say that the next Generation will look good but not that much better. Five years down the line you return to a game you once thought looked amazing, perhaps Halo, to discover that actually it looks a bit dodgy compared to what we expect now. I'm sure in five years time we'll look back at something like Sleeping Dogs and think that it looks quite rough around the edges.

[rgraves]

You want to respond to the rest of my points at all?

Like the bit where no-one outside of your imagination is going to see PS4 stuff and say ''1080P? Fuck that''.

That's not what I said at all. But I think you know it but just want an argument anyway.