Nintendo Wii U

[rgraves]

Oh, also, launch titles can sell to up to 50% of the userbase, so it's not really a fair comparison.

Selling to just 1-2% of your launch userbase is absolutely appalling (and probably unheard of)

Well yeah, I did say an uptick was expected with launch Mind you, I think 50% is a touch high for an average third-party title - that's surely more flagship/first-party territory (on a Nintendo platform at least)?

I don't think the exact numbers are ever really going to be open for us to do it that way - which is why I was trying to look at percentages initially to get at least a rough finger of the pulse so to speak.

[Liquid Myth]

Edit: Incidentally, what started this off? Which publisher is complaining about their Wii software numbers?

In no chronological order:

• Nintendo's recent video preview event complete with official apologies
  
• Iwata contemplating resignation if things don't improve
  
• A total of 34k copies of software sold in January in the UK (not counting digital sales), against figures around 800k+ for the 360 and 500k+ for the PS3 (again, non-digital)
  
• Several companies explaining why they're not converting games (such as Tomb Raider, a new 3D Castlevania)
  
• EA getting cold feet (no new Tiger Woods, Madden and FIFA based upon older versions)
  
• Delay of a new Rayman game for multi-platform simultaneous release
  
• Heaps of rumours/NDAs on neogaf (companies privately talking of canceled games at a DICE conference is the most talked about, and a major unnamed publisher being unhappy with sales)
  
• Wild theorising regarding a complex infrastructure (based upon pictures) for more difficult port work
  
• MID stops posting
  

[squirtle]

Is it? I know VGChartz isn't considered the most reliable but looking at the global hardware sales there for all 3, in the same time frame the Wii U is way ahead of PS3, but not 360. 360 is ahead by a couple of hundred thousand sales, and the 360 suffered pretty drastic shortages at, and for a few weeks after launch.

No it's not. The first three months of it's life, November to January, the 360 (according to VGChartz) sold 350k, 827k and 518k for a total of 1,695K.

The Wii U has sold 472K, 1,773K and 261K for a total of 2,505k.

That's nearly a million more.

[squirtle]

Those games above, Kameo, Perfect Dark Zero and PGR3 were first party titles, published by MS, so they don't count.

Further to this, a lot of the 3rd party content on the Wii U are ports of games previously available on the other two systems.

What are the big 3rd party exclusives? Zombi U is the only one I can think of.

[TheSlugFormerlyKnownAsNap]

CoD2 was the surprise third party hit 360 launch title. As said before, this was way before the franchise was as massive as it is now (that happened with the multiplayer heavy CoD4:MW). It was the first CoD on a console, and they did a great job on it and people loved it and it sold well. It was my favourite launch title, together with PGR3. Not sure why people want to call it an 'outlier' and leave it out in the comparisons.

[scottcr]

Had the WiiU launched with Activisions new MANSHOOTER a new franchise that looked awesome and it was a few months before it released on other platforms... it would have sold a lot more. Fact is - most of the folks who play CoD will have bought it on other platforms.

It's just special types like me who held out for the WiiU version.

[squirtle]

CoD2 was the surprise third party hit 360 launch title. As said before, this was way before the franchise was as massive as it is now (that happened with the multiplayer heavy CoD4:MW). It was the first CoD on a console, and they did a great job on it and people loved it and it sold well. It was my favourite launch title, together with PGR3. Not sure why people want to call it an 'outlier' and leave it out in the comparisons.

I love being pedantic, but there were COD titles on console before this. I remember playing them on the Xbox.

[Bojangle]

Had the WiiU launched with Activisions new MANSHOOTER a new franchise that looked awesome and it was a few months before it released on other platforms... it would have sold a lot more.

I don't think it would have sold a lot more at all, I guess it all depends on how many counts as "a lot more". I doubt many of the CoD players would switch platform for a console with an unknown online infrastructure, with a different controller to that they're used to, and here's the main one for CoD players, something that the rest of their clan/online friends won't be getting.

[squirtle]

I don't think it would have sold a lot more at all, I guess it all depends on how many counts as "a lot more". I doubt many of the CoD players would switch platform for a console with an unknown online infrastructure, with a different controller to that they're used to, and here's the main one for CoD players, something that the rest of their clan/online friends won't be getting.

And, IMO, this is going to be the same situation with the PS4 and 720. A few will migrate, but the next COD game will still land on the PS3 and 360 and for most people, paying £40 for the game will be far more preferable than slapping down north of £400 at a rough estimate for a new console and game that only a select few of their clan/mates will have gone to as well.

[Bojangle]

No it's not. The first three months of it's life, November to January, the 360 (according to VGChartz) sold 350k, 827k and 518k for a total of 1,695K.

The Wii U has sold 472K, 1,773K and 261K for a total of 2,505k.

That's nearly a million more.

You're right of course. Not sure how I managed that. Apologies! Will edit my post accordingly.

[squirtle]

You're right of course. Not sure how I managed that. Apologies! Will edit my post accordingly.

No worries. Have a pos for being so polite!

[scottcr]

I don't think it would have sold a lot more at all, I guess it all depends on how many counts as "a lot more". I doubt many of the CoD players would switch platform for a console with an unknown online infrastructure, with a different controller to that they're used to, and here's the main one for CoD players, something that the rest of their clan/online friends won't be getting.

that's not what I'm saying - I'm saying that WiiU owners would pick up the title... whereas there are many WiiU owners who own CoD on other platforms already.

[rgraves]

Not sure why people want to call it an 'outlier' and leave it out in the comparisons.

Because, erm, it was an outlier in terms of the numbers we were discussing. You do know what an outlier is don't you.....

It was the clear #1, and I was really talking about the more 'average third-party' stuff (I repeat for those that still seem to be struggling to understand or to read, the "PGR/PDZ/Kameo level stuff" in this example) - hence the comparison with NSMBU and NintendoLand - clear outliers themselves in terms of the overall Wii U software sales. Nothing to do with their genre or brand, but everything to do with removing the very top seller(s) since they are not particularly indicative of the majority but would clearly skew any numbers.

[squirtle]

Good lord! PGR/PDZ/Kameo were not third party!

[rgraves]

Good lord! PGR/PDZ/Kameo were not third party!

Erm....you've got me there .

In which case we'd be looking more at Madden/NFS/Condemned/Quake/NBA Live then

Same difference really though - what do those 'middle ground' titles generally shift in terms of units at the launch of a new platform. Also, we've been looking purely at 360 so far because those are the numbers that Venice kindly posted. We'd need to look to at least the PS3 as well really.

[RubberJohnny]

Maybe EA will just re-release the 2012 Wii version of FIFA again for the Wii U, like they did for the 2013 release.

[mushashi]

Tiger Woods on WiiU could've been great - M+ and use the gamepad as your wee caddy - leave the screen completely clear of superflous stuff.

Anyway - I suspect the big 3 are more annoyed about Nintendo not bending to their whims when it comes to restrictions on how games are sold...

Mario decided to reply to some people on NeoGAF, a couple of Truth Bombs about the realities of the business:

Originally Posted by fabricated backlash:

The thing I find hard to believe is that there even were projects to be canceled.

I find that very very hard to believe.

After all that amazing support for the Wii, 3rd parties suddenly investing a lot in the WiiU just to cancel stuff 2 months in, just sounds too convenient of an excuse.

An excuse for what exactly?

Originally Posted by fabricated backlash:

For just continuing their farce of talking nice in public and completely laughing about the mere thought of spending any budget worth more than a Happy Meal on projects on a Nintendo hardware.

There is no ongoing conspiracy here. If a publisher can make money reliably on a platform, they'll support it.

Hardware sales are below expectations. Software sales are below expectations. Publishers are retracting from the platform as a result. It really is that simple.

Attaching emotional motivations to large corporates in an industry like this is just projection and paranoia.

Originally Posted by Father_Brain:

Well, you yourself did say that third parties were much more inclined to give PS3 the benefit of the doubt when their software on it was selling well below expectations.

It was a different time in a different market with a different set of precedents and expectations.

Originally Posted by Terrell:

Such as?

Am on my phone, but to quickly summarize at the debut of the PS3 Sony had the success of the PS2 behind them, retail market was growing not in decline, there were less competing devices/channels, and financial markets/investors viewed consoles more favorably.

Originally Posted by farnham:

If retail is in decline and the financial markets regard gaming as something not that lucrative.

Isnt it counterproductive to kill off any support for the market leader last gen then? Them failing would really limit the customerbase of gaming companies to a very small fraction of the population (15-35 year old males)

The environment is now very punishing of missteps. You can't afford to back the wrong horse and get away with it any more, whether that be a market, platform, genre, business model, whatever.

And with Wii U faltering out of the gate, why is it then unreasonable for risk averse publishers to invest elsewhere (or dial down investment) while Nintendo and other third parties do the groundwork to get the install base and consumer market to where it needs to be?

Might they be missing an opportunity? Maybe. Might they be avoiding throwing money down a pit? Also, maybe.

People are way over analyzing this.

Originally Posted by Terrell:

So what happens if Orbis and Durango falter out of the gate? How fucked are we then?

To give some insight into my views on the matter, after 16 years of developing consoles games, I currently have no intention for my company to develop for Wii U, Orbis or Durango.

The market is such that i believe it cannot support 3 or more consoles out there. Perhaps it won't even meaningfully support dedicated consoles at all.

You'll have to work out what that means for yourself as a gamer depending on your preferences.

Originally Posted by MadOdorMachine:

Just out of curiosity, what's stopping devs and publishers like yourselves from putting games onto e-shop, XBLA or PSN?

The key issues for each platform are

e-Shop - low install base

XBLA - you can't self publish

PSN - low sales

Quote:

It seems to me like the DD model is something that console manufacturers have to embrace.

Yes. I agree. They have to open their platforms up to make it easy to get content on there, and put monetization and access to data in the hands of the devs/pubs

[TheSlugFormerlyKnownAsNap]

I love being pedantic, but there were COD titles on console before this. I remember playing them on the Xbox.

I take it you mean this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_of_Duty:_Finest_Hour

While indeed it's a CoD title, it's more of an expansion/side story thing IIRC.

[mushashi]

He also talked about mobile games:

Originally Posted by DaBuddaDa:

Free to play on iOS I think is a bad thing. Usually ends up being frustrating and more expensive of an experience than paying $1-6 up front for everything and not having to worry about energy systems and buying coins and crap like that.

Paying $1-6 up front for everything isn't really a sustainable business model, especially for a game as costly as something the scale of Real Racing 3.

Originally Posted by btrboyev:

Then stop supporting an Eco system you're not making money on...

We are making money just fine from iOS, especially from our free to play games.

Perhaps you could just stop playing with a business model you don't support or which cost you more money than you are willing to pay?

Originally Posted by LevityNYC:

Fine, let me pay $30 for the game and not have to deal with them begging for money every 5 minutes.

Worked just fine for 30 years

See, no, it hasn't worked fine. The last 5 years have been a bloodbath for premium priced content, with much of the industry going bankrupt from small developer to large publisher alike.

Platforms have changed, content has changed, consumer expectations and consumption has changed. What may have worked before is irrelevant now except to those who want to have their cake and eat it too.

In all those GAF threads where people say "pubs and dev should just change their business model if they can't make money then", this is pubs and devs changing their business model.

Originally Posted by Alextended:

Isn't that what most people in here are saying they'll do (while acknowledging others won't)? Kind of pointless to suggest.

More or less pointless than suggesting EA charge $30 for an iPhone game?

Quote:

So, all the studios and indies doing just fine without microtrasnactions don't count?

I didn't say that a company couldn't be profitable with a premium paid model (though that number on iOS is very small). But suggesting everything has been just peachy for 30 years straight under a premium paid model and companies should just blindly keep doing that is just wrong. Many, many companies have gone under because they haven't been able to react to the massively changed dynamics of the marketplace in the past few years.

Quote:

Then take your and others' success stories in the rest of your post out of the equation too, as there are plenty free to play games that have failed and been shut down. It's not the savior in the face of impending standard pricing schemes doom, it's another choice that will or won't work for the studio and for different kinds of markets based on how it's handled, all people are doing here is saying this change isn't for them.

I'm not suggesting F2P in and off itself is "the savior" of the industry either, only that companies shifting to F2P is indicative of them changing their models to find something that works better.

Success in the current marketplace requires much more than flipping your content to free to play in a shallow way. It requires a cohesive strategy covering platforms, content, community attached to an appropriate (and IMO multilayered) business model.

I've never heard of Emily Rogers before but a quick Google suggests she's a fully paid up member of the NDF and writes amazing articles such as "Gaming Journalism Vs. Nintendo"

She tried doing proper journalism a while ago for a site called Not Enough Shaders (geddit) which claims to be some multiplatform news site, but after being caught lying about a news story (the developer cited said it was BS), committed Twitter suicide but seems to be back at it again, she also apparently went out with a NoA employee once, so make of that what you will.

I love being pedantic, but there were COD titles on console before this. I remember playing them on the Xbox.

CoD2 was the first real console CoD game, as it was developed by Infinity Ward, and wasn't some spinoff. It was the first X360 game to break 1 Million units in the US in less than 1 year from a standing start and it had an incredible attach rate (even better than any Nintendo launch title), which I think you'll find would have been a big sign of confidence to any potential licensee, it's the exact opposite signal to what the sales of current licensee titles are performing like on the Wii U.

[RubberJohnny]

Who the hell is Mario on NeoGAF?

It's not like any of that is an amazing knowledge bomb, so it looks like you're just quoting random posters.

[TheSlugFormerlyKnownAsNap]

It probably helped a lot that Perfect Dark Zero turned out to be completely rubbish and people were gagging for a good FPS.

[squirtle]

I take it you mean this one http://en.wikipedia....ty:_Finest_Hour

While indeed it's a CoD title, it's more of an expansion/side story thing IIRC.

That, and Big Red One. Yeah, they're are more side stories, but still, they were the first COD games on consoles.

[mushashi]

Who the hell is Mario on NeoGAF?

It's not like any of that is an amazing knowledge bomb, so it looks like you're just quoting random posters.

Do a reverse text search, though considering you are actually a member of the site, you sure don't seem to pay much attention to who posts on it

Man, if Mario is abandoning the Wii Nintendo really are fucked

Rllmuk behind the NeoGAF, yet again I see, he didn't even get that joke when somebody replied with something similar there.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=47485432&postcount=1117

[scottcr]

and what he says makes sense - particularly in the west - the companies would rather try and make money out of lower cost F2P games on the iPhone...

remember when I got lambasted for saying that it wasn't good for gaming...

[mushashi]

It's what he is betting his companie's future on, he's giving up console development totally.

Edit - and he isn't alone, Crytek have re-affirmed their desire to transtition to being a global F2P gaming company, and most people would consider them to be a standard bearer for AAA games, so some people in the industry are seeing the ground shifting and are starting to hedge their bets if the king is dead.

[scottcr]

see that bit when he says 'gamers should stop buying these games then' - that's the nub of it. The type of gamer willing to part with 40 quid for a big game is a tiny sliver of the market now. Particularly that those 'casual' folks who would previously have done that are now getting their games on the phones.

It's interesting that he's not hot on any of the new platforms... the platform makers will have to prove them first before they commit to them.

[gizmo1990]

and what he says makes sense - particularly in the west - the companies would rather try and make money out of lower cost F2P games on the iPhone...

remember when I got lambasted for saying that it wasn't good for gaming...

Scott, if developing for Nintendo platforms was easier, devs would come. Yes Unity for Wiiu is good but again I say, they need unity on the 3ds. That is the platform which would make more devs take the plunge or at least run in tandem with ios. It has a reasonably large userbase now but most importantly it doesn't require the dev costs a home console does

[mushashi]

see that bit when he says 'gamers should stop buying these games then' - that's the nub of it. The type of gamer willing to part with 40 quid for a big game is a tiny sliver of the market now. Particularly that those 'casual' folks who would previously have done that are now getting their games on the phones.

Which of his replies are you talking about? I can only see something related to people bitching about F2P on mobile.

Even Japanese publishers have embraced F2P/Social games, so most sensible people are hedging their bets now. People's expectations are being changed by what iOS, etc have brought, which in many ways is undermining the traditional console business model's appeal.

[hub2]

And EVEN Nintendo have touched upon the F2P question when reporting to their investors. Iwata himself mentioned that Nintendo remained open to the business model yet maybe not with their core franchises.

Whether that is Nintendo being too conservative, or he's correctly protecting their value, is an interesting question.

[esar]

Has this been mentioned yet: http://www.edge-online.com/news/tank-tank-tank-is-wii-us-first-free-to-play-game/