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Rumour: Next-gen Xbox to be revealed at E3


Floex
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I would imagine that if they were hiring for "defining and delivering next generation console architectures from conception through implementation" in March, they're nowhere near having something to show at E3, and in particular I wouldn't expect them to have dev hardware to give to people. Extremely speculative target footage, maybe, but I'm very sceptical of this story. Especially the defensive bit about how early dev kits resemble PCs.

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What's quite interesting is the fact that if Nintendo do bring out a more powerful console than the current two and do go for the hardcore like the THQ chap quoted in the Saints Row 2 thread said, then they may totally clean up. The amount that they have made with releasing the Gamecube with waggle they could easily afford making quite a beast which will nick all of the 350 / PS3 owners potentially 2 years before their next consoles. Sneaky buggers.

I have several problems with that theory.

1. Nintendo don't sell at a loss. To 'clean up' the hardcore market, before MS and Sony arrive on the scene, would require making a very technologically advanced console. Otherwise it would fall short when compared with the latecomers. This would make each unit bloody expensive, too expensive to be a proposition on the market without substantial subsidy. So Nintendo forego any income they would've made from hardware, running at a loss.

2. They'd need to get third-party publishers on board. This would require they to hold back their software arm, playing against their own strengths, and release a console that doesn't have a great deal of first-party massmarket software from day one. They have to do this otherwise there's no gap in the market for third-party publishers to fill, and without them the 'hardcore' gamers will never see the games they want developed for the system. So Nintendo forego almost all income that they would've made from software.

3. The Wii brand is massive, they'd be mad to throw it away. It's much more likely that they'll try to expand the idea of what a Wii is and does in the consumer's mind. It will be HD, perform more multimedia functions, and it will also probably have a better selection of 'serious' games. They will be trying to expand the brand into new markets, obviously, but the 'hardcore' market will only be one area they're focusing on.

So basically getting core gamers back inside will only be a small part of their plan, and they're not going to throw away and and all chances of day one profits in pursuit of that.

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I would imagine that if they were hiring for "defining and delivering next generation console architectures from conception through implementation" in March, they're nowhere near having something to show at E3, and in particular I wouldn't expect them to have dev hardware to give to people. Extremely speculative target footage, maybe, but I'm very sceptical of this story. Especially the defensive bit about how early dev kits resemble PCs.

xdk.jpg

Crapping on somebody else's reveal happens a lot in other tech industries, especially the PC field, Intel just did it recently infact, Bulldozer KIA.

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FUUUCKS SAKE PEOPLE. This "60fps, 1080p" thing is never going to happen. NEVER. This generation has conclusively proved that developers are prepared to sacrifice performance for increased visual detail because the vast majority of users honestly don't care. No matter how much power is available, they'll always be a little more that can be squeezed out by sacrificing performance.

We really shouldn't have to be telling people this, just pointing at this generation and going "look".

RubberJohnny, the guy who desperately wants you to know that the sky is falling.

In the PS1 era, we put up with games wheezing along at an unsteady 20fps in blockovision.

PS2 era, 30-60fps and VGA res stopped being tradeoffs. 360/PS3 era, 720p and AA stopped being tradeoffs, for 99% of games for the first five years. The bar of what stops being a luxury for the same component cost is steadily raised.

To say that a fairly modest incremental upgrade over current-gen expectations is NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN is laughable in the extreme, especially if you consider that these days a slightly above average netbook can happily chuck new games around at this res/framerate.

"60fps, 1080p" is only a tradeoff on hardware designed seven years ago.

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If Microsoft make an announcement about new hardware, they'll only be doing it to Dreamcast Nintendo.

Well yeah, whatever announcement Nintendo make at E3, Sony and MS will obviously do whatever they can to shit on it, even if they themselves don't have anything ready to show.

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RubberJohnny, the guy who desperately wants you to know that the sky is falling.

In the PS1 era, we put up with games wheezing along at an unsteady 20fps in blockovision.

PS2 era, 30-60fps and VGA res stopped being tradeoffs. 360/PS3 era, 720p and AA stopped being tradeoffs, for 99% of games for the first five years. The bar of what stops being a luxury for the same component cost is steadily raised.

To say that a fairly modest incremental upgrade over current-gen expectations is NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN is laughable in the extreme, especially if you consider that these days a slightly above average netbook can happily chuck new games around at this res/framerate.

"60fps, 1080p" is only a tradeoff on hardware designed seven years ago.

Current-gen assets at next-gen speeds are easier to do than next-gen assets at current-gen speeds, I would've thought. Look at TimeSplitters.

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Well could you tell the mobile and PC industry to stop progressing so the consoles don't look so antiquated in comparison, Apple will be competitive with the HD consoles within a few years, and if the rate of progress continues there, they might even get ahead, but people seem happy to buy a new mobile bit of kit every year or two, but expect (5)8-10 years out of a cheaper (subsidised) home console.

It's more of a lack of demand on the software front. Big AAA hits already cost hundreds of millions to make, can developers and publishers really survive jacking that up to half a billion, considering there's what - 2 publishers who can make stuff at that level anyway? I mean, from PS2 gen to this gen, they went increasingly multiplatform, raised the price of games by $10, made games shorter, and increased the ARPU on each game with about $40 of post-release DLC to counter that rise.

With a theoretical next-gen, there's not really any more platforms to go multiplatform to, I doubt they'll want to put the price up more - quite a few genres like MMOs are opting towards a more shareware model as it is, so their only chances are making the games shorter, and really piling on that DLC to get more money out of existing users - or just switch to some new business model that costs more.

Personally, I'm glad for the longer generation, and would like them to continue to scale with development time. Back in the PS1 era when the average game dev length was less than 12 months, it was easy to put out a trilogy in a few years. Now the average AAA game length is ~2 years, and if it weren't for the longer generation we'd never have the Mass Effect trilogy actually wrap up.

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I'm not saying that MS isn't going to show something at E3, just that the idea that they have interesting new kit sent to devs sounds dubious. If they've shipped anything it'll pretty much have to be off-the-shelf PC hardware, to give them a benchmark to aim for. Maybe that's what the next Xbox is going to be, of course.

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It seems more a thing to do with early, non-final hardware dev kits, rather than the ones which get made when the hardware has been launched:

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I'm not saying that MS isn't going to show something at E3, just that the idea that they have interesting new kit sent to devs sounds dubious. If they've shipped anything it'll pretty much have to be off-the-shelf PC hardware, to give them a benchmark to aim for. Maybe that's what the next Xbox is going to be, of course.

Well that's exactly what that PC-look-alike Mac-based prototype dev kit for the X360 was, just a roughly comparable bit of hardware for devs to aim for before the actual real hardware was ready.

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Talking of the fact that EA got these first (allegedly), when are they going to deliver on their X360 target render promise? :)

madden-next-gen-part-2-20050419030717033-000.jpg

madnextgen.jpg

I can't find the NFS target renders, but I don't think we've ever got to that level of graphics this gen on that game either, can't wait for how high EA want to set the bar this coming gen :)

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FUUUCKS SAKE PEOPLE. This "60fps, 1080p" thing is never going to happen. NEVER. This generation has conclusively proved that developers are prepared to sacrifice performance for increased visual detail because the vast majority of users honestly don't care. No matter how much power is available, they'll always be a little more that can be squeezed out by sacrificing performance.

We really shouldn't have to be telling people this, just pointing at this generation and going "look".

What generation hasn't this happened in? I remember back in the N64 days the later games regularly dipped sub-10 fps. The simple fact is that halving the frame rate doubles the number of polygons on screen. And I can understand devs not wanting to cater to the small number of people who obsess over 60fps when everyone likes pretty graphics.

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The age of integrated cpu+gpu is here, I reckon that's what the new xbox will have.

It'll be interesting to see how it's pitched, though. The leap from last gen to this one involved HD. Aside from us lot, I don't know how Joe Public will perceive "better HD". Unless it's that 3D bobbins.

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The age of integrated cpu+gpu is here, I reckon that's what the new xbox will have.

It'll be interesting to see how it's pitched, though. The leap from last gen to this one involved HD. Aside from us lot, I don't know how Joe Public will perceive "better HD". Unless it's that 3D bobbins.

There was very little public awareness in the UK of HDTV or the 360's capabilities in that area around the time it launched, it was included more in the american marketing push, but here it was treated like they treated the 720p compatability of the original xbox in the US, as an aside, something for the future and tech junkies. I think they'll probably do fine differenciating it if the graphics capabilities are a big step up. And they only really need to stick a CoD trailer on the thing anyway to sell it.

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bald space marine shoots monsters in the face, now with shinier graphics. Yours for £400

Indeed thank god we still have Nintendo for true innovative gaming because there's nothing else to play on the 360 except space marine fps games. PLZ SAVE OUR HOBBY MR. MIYAMOTO SAN

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Indeed thank god we still have Nintendo for true innovative gaming because there's nothing else to play on the 360 except space marine fps games. PLZ SAVE OUR HOBBY MR. MIYAMOTO SAN

Aye, it's a tiring comment, not in the least because there aren't actually that many space marine games.

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Tbh I don't think it's true but for the kind of enthusiast that posts on a gaming forum it would be brilliant if this E3 turned out be an epic struggle between Microsoft and Nintendo sending gamers into a frenzy with next-gen hardware reveals (or current-gen as far as Nintendo goes really) and each trying to out-hype each other. With Sony saying sorry a lot inbetween. The traditional rllmuk E3 threads would be awesome if this were to happen :D

:lol:

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COD shooters would have been more accurate, especially with Battlefield 3 being an entirely predictable "kill 3 dudes, call in UAV" experience. I've had enough of those to last a lifetime.

Cool when did you play it?

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COD shooters would have been more accurate, especially with Battlefield 3 being an entirely predictable "kill 3 dudes, call in UAV" experience. I've had enough of those to last a lifetime.

The amazing thing is that I don't like COD shooters at all, I never bother with them. Yet I have a shitload of quality 360 games and I really like the console! What am I doing wrong?

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It's more of a lack of demand on the software front. Big AAA hits already cost hundreds of millions to make, can developers and publishers really survive jacking that up to half a billion, considering there's what - 2 publishers who can make stuff at that level anyway? I mean, from PS2 gen to this gen, they went increasingly multiplatform, raised the price of games by $10, made games shorter, and increased the ARPU on each game with about $40 of post-release DLC to counter that rise.

If you believe this is an inevitable result of increasing hardware power, you are mental.

Your estimate of average development times by generation is completely adrift from reality as well.

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Cool when did you play it?

I'll bet you a tenner you can call in a UAV when you get three kills in Battlefield 3. Like that's as predictable as "it will have red dot sights" and "there will be an XP based progression mechanic in multiplayer" and, oh - everything else about that game. I know you get very defensive about it because it's pretty though.

The amazing thing is that I don't like COD shooters at all, I never bother with them. Yet I have a shitload of quality 360 games and I really like the console! What am I doing wrong?

I'm honestly not sure how you managed to get me saying "the 360 is a shitty console" from me correcting a post on a gaming zeitgeist that was made by another poster to mock a future console? But well done.

If you believe this is an inevitable result of increasing hardware power, you are mental.

I believe it's an inevitable result of increasing graphical fidelity. More polygons and games the same length = more time/more staff = more money = wider audience = more advertising. CODBLOPS was $200 million, for example.

If you can outline a way in which games will get cheaper to make in future, yet still use more power, I'd like to hear it.

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