What will the PS3 / 360 / Wii split be?

[Wallpaper]

PS3 - 45%

Wii - 35%

360 - 20%

Microsoft were given a huge headstart and they've spunked it up the wall and once consumers have a choice out there it's only going to get harder for them to make people want a 360.

[Burai]

I wouldn't be too sure about that, if I were you. I mean, if the 360 can sell in Japan (of all places) because people are fed up with waiting, then it can most definitely sell in the west.

But 360 isn't selling in Japan. Not at all. You're referring to the Blue Dragon core pack, right? They've presold 10,000. On an average week, the DS sells 200,000 - 300,0000. Do the math. People are buying them because they are fed up of waiting, they are buying them to play Blue Dragon and Blue Dragon alone.

True. A lot of sales come when the machine in question starts dropping in price. Which it probably won't do for a VERY long time.

It'll come when it needs to. The only reason PS3 costs so much from the off is because Sony know people will pay this sort of money at launch for a hot product. Current ebay demand suggests they've underpriced the machine by about $1000...

More than you might be aware of it. The internet has become a bigger and more important medium this day and age, than it was a decade ago. And don't forget that the negativity has been spread to more media than just the net as well. Hell, if even my neighbour knows about the PS-backlash, than I can definitely assure you that this hasn't been contained to the geeks on the net.

Sorry, I just haven't seen anything major in the mass-media about that. I saw a thing in the Times about PlayStation fans giving up on PS3, but they didn't give any sources for that and the Times isn't exactly the Sun.

Except they will.

A lot of 360s have been sold as a sub for the PS3 already and more and more parents and casuals are aware of the Wii. I know anecdotal evidence is hardly evidence, but the amount of people I heard going on about that 'new Nintendo thing' is quite staggering. And the XBox brand has become the new PS brand for quite a few people. MS really have done a good job with that.

Yeah, lots of people have heard of the Wii, but I can't see anyone who wants a PS3 or 360 actually buying one instead. If you're after hi-def and improved graphics and online, you won't want what the Wii has to offer. I know people have bought 360's rather than wait for PS3, but you were always going to get that. The sales figures for 360 thus far don't suggest that enough people are doing it though.

True, but just wait until GoW comes out and don't get me started on Halo 3.

Problem is, people don't buy a console just for one game. Microsoft need more of a variety of games to truly hope to make people switch.

It will.

But not because of why a lot of us are so happy with it. They're happy with it because of the popularity of the thing and because it has GTA, PES and Singstar.

Like I said, that popularity is slowly shifting towards the XBox (with its evergrowing popularity with the masses). And don't forget that the 360 will feature more partygames like the ones the PS2 had. Just look at what's happening with Guitar Hero. And don't underestimate the temporary exclusivity deal the 360 has for the footie games.

The 360 will feature more party games? Not enough. The 360 needs them right now. Did you know that 360 has only three kids platform games? Three platformers in one year. That's just not enough and a perfect example of where the 360 falls down when trying to sell it to people who are coming from PS2. And I doubt a port of a PS2 guitar game will cause anyone to drop their PS2 and the billion editions of DDR, Singstar etc. Certainly I can't see the footie games being much of a sway because the PS2 has superior versions of FIFA and PES.

More and more casuals are 'realizing' that the PS2 is old tech and that's 'not cool'. With the 360 being out a year and the Wii on the horizon, that stop-gap is looking uglier by the second.

Well they aren't if the sales are anything to go by. PS2 is still outselling the 360 and if anyone is buying a Wii because they think PS2 graphics are ugly they'll be in for a shock when they get the thing home.

I can appreciate a lot of what you're saying, but historically it just doesn't really work out like that. If Xbox 360 was a bigger step-up from PS2 than it currently is and PS3 was another 12 months away, I think you'd be spot-on.

[whizzo]

Wii 40 %

PS3 25 %

360 35 %

This is based on huge numbers of people buying a wii as a second machine so nintendo will not be the dominant company

[scottcr]

folks will be buying Wii because they think it looks like a laugh to play.

I really really do see the Wii and the 360 as two very complementary consoles.

The 360 and PS3, in terms of media hub and all that gubbins, are very very similar. I don't need two media hubs - the 360 is a perfectly good one, and it integrates well with my PC and it's only going to get better with Vista.

With games at 50 quid a pop in the shops, I'm going to have a hard enough time buying games I want for one of the big boys never mind both of them - so, I'll pass on the PS3 for quite some time. Never say I won't buy the thing - but, not for quite a while yet.

Another factor in this is ease of development. The 360 uses technology that every game developer is comfortable with. The PS3 is a different kettle of fish. Sure, Sony's own will get the most out of it - but as a 3rd party developer - I'd be tempted to make the 360 my primary version and port to the PS3. I can imagine that developing a multi-platform game for such a revolutionary technology as the cell and then trying to port that back to the 360 would be a nightmare.

MS have used their massive wallets to buy out reasons stopping people, at least for us not in the far east, from buying 360s. They've got Football deals on both Fifa and PES, they've got GTA coming out on the same day. Meanwhile, Sony are in some serious financial trouble...

PS3: 67%

360: 23%

WII: 10%

UK figures.

of existing games market...

I'd like to see if Wii does a DS and sells to those who wouldn't buy a console. Personally, to be honest, I doubt it. I think what we'll see is mum and dad playing the console they bought for their kids as well... which could mean that more software gets bought - maybe that's the point.

[Super Craig]

Another factor in this is ease of development. The 360 uses technology that every game developer is comfortable with. The PS3 is a different kettle of fish.

The 360 uses a multi-core CPU as well.

[Rubber_Johnny]

PS3 65%

X360 21%

Wii 12%

[Dalvado]

I disagree with you that "I don't for some reason think we can use the DS's success over the PSP as an example here". I think the DS's acceptance in Britain is a very strong sign that we'll be up for "trying something new" when it comes to the Wii. Why don't you believe that it is?

The thing about the graphics is that when the PS3 hits, the graphics will actually look a lot worse than the 360's. Well, according to Philip (or was it Andrew?) Oliver, who said that Halo 3 will benefit from experience with the 360 and make the PS3's early games look inferior. In time, sure, the PS3's graphics will overtake the 360's, simply because of what's under the bonnet, but it won't be immediate. I don't know if I believe him, but he sounded convinced.

I was thinking more along the lines that some of the said clueless media will say "the Wii's graphics are inferior" in some way. That might well put off the ones that only buy a games console because it's the latest "high tech gadget". The DS has a nice and simple touch screen interface and included the standard buttons for good measure. I think the extra dimensions with the Wiimote will be too much for some to take in. Especially if all of this "you need to be waving your hands about business" makes people think they'll get tired playing.

I just have this feeling somewhere that while the DS was a £100 portable machine which is good for quick play sessions, the Wii is slightly more expensive and won't be the same as with the DS. I hope I'm wrong as the Wii excites me, but I just get a nagging sense of realism that this country won't take to the Wii.

[Bluetooth]

50-25-25 favouring the PS3. Some of you are thinking too short term.

[utopastac]

People are buying them because they are fed up of waiting, they are buying them to play Blue Dragon and Blue Dragon alone.

.

.

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Problem is, people don't buy a console just for one game. Microsoft need more of a variety of games to truly hope to make people switch.

PS - I know that you're not talking about the same audiences there, I just thought it was funny.

[Sprite Machine]

The Blue Dragon pack is selling because it's ludicrously cheap! An Xbox360 plus game for £130?! You'd be rude not to!

And don't forget that the 360 will feature more partygames like the ones the PS2 had. Just look at what's happening with Guitar Hero.

Somehow I doubt a more expensive version of a PS2 game is gonna sell the 360 to PS2 owners, do you?

It's a nice gesture, though.

[Sprite Machine]

Compared to the PS2, yes.

But unless the PS3 will do much, much better in terms of variety (which isn't visible to me yet; I'm seeing a shitload of racing and actiongames for it so far), I don't think this will be such a big problem for the 360.

The problem for the 360 is that it is still competing against the PS2. Look at the sales figures, they speak for themselves. The amount of variety and quality on offer is staggering. The number of people who currently want/need better graphics and high-def capabilities is nowhere near enough to offset that, and by the time it is, both the PS3 and 360 will be viable solutions.

The future has proved itself to be very unpredictable and definitely not something you could easily derive from looking at how things were going down before. Exhibit A) The DS vs. PSP thing. Who would've thought!

Who'd've thought a Nintendo handheld would beat a more powerful rival handheld in sales? Well jeez, that's never happened before, has it?

[Super Craig]

A lot of people know that the new gen has kicked off and they just want a new console. That's it. The Wii's pricetag, sexy exterior, Zelda, positive press/mouth-to-mouth and marketing will no doubt sway a lot of people towards it who were otherwise going to buy an XBox or PS3. Especially parents, who still make up a huge chunk of the people that buy consoles.

I have to disagree with this. While I can see the Wii appealing to non-gamers, lapsed gamers and the "hardcore", I can see a lot of traditional gamers avoiding the machine entirely.

True, but that will no doubt come. MS has earned a lot of trust from developers.

It didn't really come with the original Xbox though did it? Microsoft are going to have to prove that they've changed.

But unless the PS3 will do much, much better in terms of variety (which isn't visible to me yet; I'm seeing a shitload of racing and actiongames for it so far), I don't think this will be such a big problem for the 360.

Sony doesn't have to prove itself in this area though. People are going to assume that they will see the same variety eventually.

The future has proved itself to be very unpredictable and definitely not something you could easily derive from looking at how things were going down before. Exhibit A) The DS vs. PSP thing. Who would've thought!

This doesn't mean that the Wii will be successful though.

[Super Craig]

What do you mean with 'traditional gamers'? The ones others like to call 'middle-core'? Or the ones that are like most rllmukers? If you mean the last group, then don't forget that they're a relatively small group compared to the groups that the Wii will appeal to.

I'm sorry, I'm a bit confused as you used both 'the hardcore' and 'traditional gamers' and to me, they've always been the same.

I suppose casual would have been a better word than traditional. Basically, I can see gamers who only play things like Pro Evo and GTA dismissing the machine altogether.

[deerokus]

i thought that too, but anecdotal evidence based on people i know who are exactly like that suggests they're way more exicted about the wii than i thought. in fact much more so than i am, and i'm a nintendo whore.

i was pleasantly surprised.

[John0]

PS3: 33%

360: 33%

Wii: 33%

[DirkCrisis]

PS3: 33%

360: 33%

Wii: 33%

Zombie Dreamcast - 1%?