What will the PS3 / 360 / Wii split be?

[Vemsie]

Wanna make a bet?

If you win, you get to look at naked pictures of my girlfriend. If I win, I get to dress you up as a Shenmue character of choice and kick you in the balls.

Sure.

[Sprite Machine]

One thing to consider is that Nintendo's inclusive approach this time around won't necessarily earn them more unit sales. In fact, their stance is one of 'sharing' a family system. Non-gamers, in all likelihood, aren't going to be rushing out to buy Wii consoles in droves, but they might join in and pick up a game or two for themselves.

[Graham S]

PS2: 71%

XBox: 16%

GC: 13%

Thanks. Given those numbers, many of the predictors are expecting a major shift this time round.

[Guest alisdair]

What is 'their blue ocean strategy'?

Growing the market into uncontested space (current non-gamers). It's a general marketing term.

[A Hen]

Any score under 80% should be considered "average".

[Splendid]

PS3 3000%

Wii 9,000,000%

360 -1800%

[MalevolentPanda]

Growing the market into uncontested space (current non-gamers). It's a general marketing term.

I'm glad I didn't know what it meant then.

[Beitel]

PS3: 37%

Wii: 32%%

Xbox360: 31%

Something like this. I don't see Sony taking such a big share this time, but it'll still win by quite a bit.

[bignige]

Xbox - 360%

Playstation - 3%

Wii - Gamecube 2.5%

[Burai]

Going by the current Rllmuk vibe I'll go for:

Wii: 50%

360: 49%

PS3: 1% (Burai & PugFugly)

Haha! Joke's on you, bum-arse! Burai won't be buying a PS3 for the following reasons:

1) Too expensive (hardware and software).

2) No rumble.

3) The same stupid fucking reliance on consumer-shafting microtransactions as the Xbox 360.

Fix all of those and we'll talk.

As to the topic at hand, the only guarantee is PS3 outselling Xbox 360 due to European and Japanese loyalties. How Wii does is up to Nintendo, but it'll either soar really high to PlayStation-levels or crash and burn worse than the GameCube. The concept doesn't lend itself to the middleground.

[pauc]

360 - 40%

Wii - 35%

PS3 - 25%

Blatantly.

[Cheeko]

This thread is just a sly attempt to spot the fanboys?

360 60%

Wii 40%

PS3 0%

eh?

[Initial K]

PS3 50%

Wii 30%

360 20%

[Valver]

Im gonna go with:

360 - 50%

PS3 - 35%

Wii - 15%

I rekon the PS3s price and the fact that once it comes out it will prove to be no better than the 360 will ruin it

And I think the Wii is just a gimmick that gamers will tire of, and the general "non gaming public" still wont be interested in.

IMHO

[MDK]

Without reading everyone else's:

PS3: 48%

X360: 27%

Wii: 25%

[Dalvado]

PS3 45%

Xbox 360 30%

Wii 25%

If I was more confident in some countries' attitudes (like the UK) to trying something new the Wii would get more. Japan and America will help the numbers I think. Most PS3 buyers will get it because of the name and have not heard of Sony's blunders or arrogance like the forum has. I think MS will make inroads thanks to their balance between price and content mainstream content plus. There's a lot of shallow folk out there who'll want "next gen graphics" and the hyped names they hear of from the clueless media like the BBC and lads mags like FHM who concentrate on that. I don't for some reason think we can use the DS's success over the PSP as an example here. I just get that feeling despite being excited about the Wii.

At least Nintendo will still be around though as they'll be the only ones making profit.

[Jim Miles]

Wii: 200%

PS3: -50%

360: -50%

I'm gonna go with:

Wii: 42%

360: 31%

PS3: 27%

And that's only so high for PS3 because of Japanese stubbornness.

[rjpageuk]

Thanks. Given those numbers, many of the predictors are expecting a major shift this time round.

I think it is more the fact most people didnt realise it was quite so one sided this generation rather than most people expecting a major shift.

I mean if PS3 does only capture 50% or less of the market this time around Sony are in big trouble based on their profits having captured over 70% of the market.

[OuttaHere]

What's the total number of Xbox 1s sold, then? I would have thought they were well on the way to beating that already.

http://www.vgcharts.org/usaconscomps.php?n...X360&type=2

http://www.vgcharts.org/japconscomps.php?n...e=2&align=0

360 is behind where Xbox was at this point in its life in America and Japan.

I can't see the European figures on that site but the Xbox had a massive boost after the drop from £299 to £199 with the 2 free bundled games.

[Jim Miles]

If I was more confident in some countries' attitudes (like the UK) to trying something new the Wii would get more.

I disagree with you that "I don't for some reason think we can use the DS's success over the PSP as an example here". I think the DS's acceptance in Britain is a very strong sign that we'll be up for "trying something new" when it comes to the Wii. Why don't you believe that it is?

There are a lot of shallow folk out there who'll want "next gen graphics" and the hyped names they hear of from the clueless media like the BBC and lads mags like FHM who concentrate on that.

The thing about the graphics is that when the PS3 hits, the graphics will actually look a lot worse than the 360's. Well, according to Philip (or was it Andrew?) Oliver, who said that Halo 3 will benefit from experience with the 360 and make the PS3's early games look inferior. In time, sure, the PS3's graphics will overtake the 360's, simply because of what's under the bonnet, but it won't be immediate. I don't know if I believe him, but he sounded convinced.

[Burai]

How anyone can still think that Sony will win after everything we know so far, is beyond me. I don't think any brandname is strong enough to counter all that negative shit, let alone make it the victor.

Seriously, think about how much the PS3 has going against it:

- Its insanely high price (which is almost as much as the Wii and 360 together).

- The launch delays.

- All the negative PR.

- The strong competition (which is MUCH, MUCH stronger than last gen).

And let's not forget:

- Its insanely high price (which won't drop any time soon, unless Sony wants to kill itself even sooner).

And that's just off the top of my head. The Wii and the 360 have so much going for them, that only the true hardcore gamer / rich gadget freak / PS fanboys will want to have a PS3 the coming months.

Simple.

The insanely high price can be written off to some degree by the brand name. That's why Apple can sell MP3 players for twice the price of everyone else's superior products. The launch delays won't be a problem for most people because a) They don't care enough to know they are getting it later and even if they did, they aren't going to be following the US and Japanese launches like we will and B) Most sales don't come at launch anyway.

The negative PR is all stuck on the net. You think the man in the street knows what E3 even is, let alone that Sony had a bad one? Or that they've shut down an online retailer they've never heard of? The strong competition is fine, but let's face it, anyone in the market for what a 360 or PS3 can do isn't going to even think about the Wii as a substitute. Similarly, 360 has been out long enough to sway PS3 buyers already. If it's not happened by this Christmas, it's probably never going to happen.

What most people who proclaim doom for the PS3 seem to forget is this:

Millions of people own and are genuinely very, very happy with their PS2 and what it's given them over the years.

Therefore it doesn't make any sense that these people would just jump ship just because PS3's not out until March and costs a lot of money. What's the point in buying a 360 for less money than a PS3 if it doesn't play Singstar or Buzz? Or a Wii when it doesn't play their old PS2 games?

Unlike Xbox, which Microsoft have officially discontinued, or the GameCube, which might as well have been discontinued, the PS2 is still a viable option. A PS2 owner isn't forced into buying a new console this Christmas because he can still buy a massive selection of new software for his current machine, he can still buy hardware and accessories and he can continue to do so into the next 12 months and beyond.

In PS2, Sony have got the perfect stop-gap whilst people wait for PS3 and for it's price to come down, just as they did with the PSone.

The thing about the graphics is that when the PS3 hits, the graphics will actually look a lot worse than the 360's. Well, according to Philip (or was it Andrew?) Oliver, who said that Halo 3 will benefit from experience with the 360 and make the PS3's early games look inferior. In time, sure, the PS3's graphics will overtake the 360's, simply because of what's under the bonnet, but it won't be immediate. I don't know if I believe him, but he sounded convinced.

I love it when people spout that, even though the Motorstorm videos have proved that to be utter, utter bollocks.

PS3 launch games look as good as Xbox 360 games do now. They don't look any better, but they seriously don't look any worse.

[j.m.ratkos]

at the end of the thier life-cycles (say 5 years)

360: 35%

ps3: 27%

wii: 38%

additionally, I think that at year-end 2006, the sell-thru numbers will look something like this

360: 8.2M

ps3: 1.0M

wii: 3.8M

[Twyford]

After 5 years

PS3 - 28%

360 - 40%

Wii - 32%

[kerraig UK]

I really do think the wii is gonna do alot better than some people predict. I also think the strength of the Sony name will still hold up to see them be overall market leaders. But not by much.

i'm gonna go with

SONY - 40%

360 -30%

Wii - 30%

[matt0]

The thing about the graphics is that when the PS3 hits, the graphics will actually look a lot worse than the 360's. Well, according to Philip (or was it Andrew?) Oliver, who said that Halo 3 will benefit from experience with the 360 and make the PS3's early games look inferior. In time, sure, the PS3's graphics will overtake the 360's, simply because of what's under the bonnet, but it won't be immediate. I don't know if I believe him, but he sounded convinced.

It sounds about right.

Edge said something similar in their CoD3 preview. It was the same with the Dreamcast and PS2 even though the difference in horsepower was much more pronounced then the 360 and PS3 look to be.

Didn't hurt Sony then, although Sega didn't have the brand awareness following the Saturn that MS do with x-box.

So I reckon... that...

I dunno, it's hard this isn't it?

[MDK]

http://www.vgcharts.org/usaconscomps.php?n...X360&type=2

http://www.vgcharts.org/japconscomps.php?n...e=2&align=0

360 is behind where Xbox was at this point in its life in America and Japan.

Not that I'm debating this, but it does seem wrong somehow, when you consider the 360's profile, compared to that of its predecessor. I guess it's the Halo effect.

I'd love if someone confronted Peter Moore with that all the same.

[Super Craig]

I wouldn't be too sure about that, if I were you. I mean, if the 360 can sell in Japan (of all places) because people are fed up with waiting, then it can most definitely sell in the west.

It isn't selling in Japan though is it?

[Vemsie]

It isn't selling in Japan though is it?

Not really, no. Sony won't even have a battle on their hands when it comes to Japan and the 360.

[OuttaHere]

Not that I'm debating this, but it does seem wrong somehow, when you consider the 360's profile, compared to that of its predecessor. I guess it's the Halo effect.

I'd love if someone confronted Peter Moore with that all the same.

This graph will explain why:

http://www.vgcharts.org/usaconscomps.php?n...X360&type=3

Talking about consoles sold misses that point a little. Also note that the 360 is selling at roughly the same rate as the Xbox was in its main period; it's just that the shambolic launch of the 360 gives the original Xbox a massive headstart.

[Mr. Gerbik]

Wii - 70%

360 - 17%

PS3 - 13%