What will the PS3 / 360 / Wii split be?

[Graham S]

By the end of this generation, what do you expect the percentage split between the consoles to be in terms of units sold worldwide?

For example:

PS3: 40%

Wii: 35%

360: 25%

I wonder if this thread will still be around at the end of this generation to judge a winner?

[Swainy]

Do you really think that Microsoft will be in third place? Either way I think it will be a lot more even than that.

[Graham S]

Do you really think that Microsoft will be in third place? Either way I think it will be a lot more even than that.

That's not my answer, it was just an illustrative example. I think I should stay impartial, so as not to throw the competition into disrepute. Plus, I have no idea.

[BeeJay]

PS3: 30%

Wii: 30%

360: 30%

DC2: 10%

[Lorfarius]

DC2: 10%

Dreamcast 2?

[Rayn]

I actually believe this round will end up quite even between the 3 (currently) major players so a 33/33/33 split wouldn't surprise me.

[Links]

PS3 40%

360 35%

Wii 25%

[Sprite Machine]

What is the end of the generation counted as? 5 years' time? 7 years' time?

[JPickford (retired mod)]

The one with the biggest hits.

[Hawkeye]

Going by the current Rllmuk vibe I'll go for:

Wii: 50%

360: 49%

PS3: 1% (Burai & PugFugly)

[MalevolentPanda]

PS3 35%

360 35%

Wii 30%

[Graham S]

What is the end of the generation counted as? 5 years' time? 7 years' time?

When every single last console is sold. But we can call the results of this generation about now, so I reckon we'll be able to do the same at an equivalent stage in the next-gen cycle. I thought about putting a fixed end date on it, but there are a lot of consoles sold at the end of the cycle, so I thought it would be unfair to whichever console is the last man standing.

[Hitcher]

Graham, are you bored today?

[DirkCrisis]

PS3 - 40%

360 - 40%

Wii - 20%

Although it'll be very difficult to obtain a global set of figures.

[Graham S]

Graham, are you bored today?

Not really, but I might be boring everyone else! I just thought it would be interesting to see people tie their colours to the mast. I'm genuinely surprised that the groundswell of 360/Wii love and PS3 scepticism on the forum actually translates to predictions that look negative for Sony. I thought we all liked to take pot-shots at the PS3, while secretly knowing it would end up selling the most.

[Sprite Machine]

When every single last console is sold. But we can call the results of this generation about now, so I reckon we'll be able to do the same at an equivalent stage in the next-gen cycle. I thought about putting a fixed end date on it, but there are a lot of consoles sold at the end of the cycle, so I thought it would be unfair to whichever console is the last man standing.

In that case, I predict it will be the same as this (last) generation, but with a slightly higher percentage for Nintendo and a slightly lower percentage for Sony. Microsoft to remain much the same.

[TheSlugFormerlyKnownAsNap]

PS3: 50%

360: 30%

WII: 20%

[therearerules]

Japan:

360 2%

Wii 65%

PS3 33%

USA:

360 40%

PS3 30%

Wii 30%

Europe:

360 30%

PS3 50%

Wii 20%

Rest of World:

360 60%

PS3 20%

Wi 20%

And that's the most pointlessly specific speculation you'll get.

[MalevolentPanda]

Microsoft to remain much the same.

What's the total number of Xbox 1s sold, then? I would have thought they were well on the way to beating that already.

[Darren]

Wii 50%

PS3 35%

360 15%

I'm basing this on (i) Nintendo successfully pulling off their blue ocean strategy, (ii) a significant part of Sony's target market being put off by the price tag and Sony being unable to drop the price in response due to the cost of manufacture, and (iii) Microsoft still not being able to give away consoles in Japan.

All pretty huge assumptions (well perhaps apart from iii), but if they're all met I reckon that will be the split.

[Graham S]

Does anyone know what the worldwide split for PS2/Xbox/GC was?

[MalevolentPanda]

Japan:

360 2%

Wii 65%

PS3 33%

USA:

360 40%

PS3 30%

Wii 30%

Europe:

360 30%

PS3 50%

Wii 20%

Rest of World:

360 60%

PS3 20%

Wi 20%

And that's the most pointlessly specific speculation you'll get.

I pretty much agree with that. I said ages ago that I thought there'd be a different winner in each region (PS3 here, 360 in the US, Wii in Japan) and more or less level worldwide, and I still think that.

[Vemsie]

Wii: 40%

360: 35%

PS3: 25%

My predictions:

PS3: 45%

Wii: 30%

360: 25%

[MalevolentPanda]

I'm basing this on (i) Nintendo successfully pulling off their blue ocean strategy,

What is 'their blue ocean strategy'?

[Sprite Machine]

What's the total number of Xbox 1s sold, then? I would have thought they were well on the way to beating that already.

I don't know. I base this mainly on them targetting the same sort of gamers as last time. I wouldn't expect a significant difference of userbase. Hard to judge the long run, though; anything could change.

[MW_Jimmy]

PS3: 50%

360: 35%

Wii: 15%

[therearerules]

What is 'their blue ocean strategy'?

When rival consoles are being shipped they sink the boat.

[rjpageuk]

Does anyone know what the worldwide split for PS2/Xbox/GC was?

PS2: 71%

XBox: 16%

GC: 13%

(Roughly 111M/24.5M/21M)

[EDIT: You get the usual arguments about which are shipped units and which are production shipments etc but these tend to die down over the life of the console. For example DS is currently at about 27M worldwide and PSP is at 23M, the latter of which is pretty badly inflated due to aforementioned shipping issue]

[Hyperforce]

PS3: 45%

Wii: 40%

360: 15%

This is at the end of the generation.

[PaB]

PS3 52%

Wii 20%

360 28%