Bad Beats

[Commander Jameson]

Another Jokerstars special:

PokerStars Game #32925880255: Tournament #196009995, $0.25+$0.00 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (60/120) - 2009/09/16 18:19:45 ET

Table '196009995 9' 9-max Seat #4 is the button

Seat 1: portag (5415 in chips)

Seat 3: DanDaggerman (4345 in chips)

Seat 4: vero44 (5625 in chips)

Seat 6: mike99434 (20505 in chips)

Seat 7: pasteurisi (7875 in chips)

Seat 8: BREN27 (10210 in chips)

Seat 9: KéKécon (24295 in chips) is sitting out

portag: posts the ante 15

DanDaggerman: posts the ante 15

vero44: posts the ante 15

mike99434: posts the ante 15

pasteurisi: posts the ante 15

BREN27: posts the ante 15

KéKécon: posts the ante 15

mike99434: posts small blind 60

pasteurisi: posts big blind 120

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to DanDaggerman [Js Jh]

BREN27: folds

KéKécon: folds

portag: calls 120

DanDaggerman: raises 480 to 600

vero44: folds

mike99434: folds

pasteurisi: folds

portag: calls 480

*** FLOP *** [7s 9s Td]

transit333 is connected

portag: checks

DanDaggerman: bets 1080

portag: raises 1080 to 2160

DanDaggerman: raises 1570 to 3730 and is all-in

portag: calls 1570

*** TURN *** [7s 9s Td] [6s]

*** RIVER *** [7s 9s Td 6s] [Tc]

*** SHOW DOWN ***

portag: shows [6h 8c] (a straight, Six to Ten)

DanDaggerman: shows [Js Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)

portag collected 8945 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 8945 | Rake 0

Board [7s 9s Td 6s Tc]

Seat 1: portag showed [6h 8c] and won (8945) with a straight, Six to Ten

Seat 3: DanDaggerman showed [Js Jh] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens

Seat 4: vero44 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 6: mike99434 (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 7: pasteurisi (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 8: BREN27 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 9: KéKécon folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[mayor_mike_haggar]

shoving over a check raise on that board is pretty nasty, to be fair to him. You're really not beating a great deal there. His play pre was crappy, but most the chips go in when he's got the goods!

[rjpageuk]

The Pokerstars double or nothing tournaments are hilariously soft, I have been playing them for a bit of a break as I have been running bad in cash so decided to play these as they are only $5.20 each (top 5 out of 10 win $10) so the money means little.

I have played 102 of them and I am 25BI down on expectation I wasnt even running that bad in cash! I have only had 153k chips in total (start with 1.5k) and I am already down 45k chips in expectation! These are probably the lowest variance poker games I have ever played as they are so soft and my edge is so big and yet I am still down 17BI which just goes to show how much variance there is in poker.

Does anyone else play these?

[mayor_mike_haggar]

I've heard they're super-soft, just sounds like tight is right basically, wait for everyone else to bust out and try to avoid flips. but does chip-expectation translate to tourney expectation? I'm not sure how that works. Sucks to be runbad though. I've been running like god for the last 10k hands at omaha, and it's nice, but the inevitable downswing is going to be brutal I'm sure.

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Pretty neat eh?

[mayor_mike_haggar]

PokerStars Game #33405803847: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2009/09/29 1:32:19 WET [2009/09/28 20:32:19 ET]

Table 'Kunigunde V' 6-max Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: QueHoraEs ($25 in chips)

Seat 2: s1ngularity ($45.80 in chips)

Seat 3: RadicaleZ ($31.50 in chips)

Seat 4: johan glans ($25 in chips)

Seat 5: baronaking ($48.10 in chips)

Seat 6: brixcity3 ($16.55 in chips)

johan glans: posts small blind $0.10

baronaking: posts big blind $0.25

QueHoraEs: posts big blind $0.25

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to johan glans [Ac 5c As 9d]

brixcity3: calls $0.25

QueHoraEs: raises $0.75 to $1

s1ngularity: folds

RadicaleZ: folds

johan glans: raises $2.50 to $3.50

baronaking: folds

brixcity3: folds

QueHoraEs: calls $2.50

*** FLOP *** [8d 8c 8h]

johan glans: bets $7.15

QueHoraEs: calls $7.15

*** TURN *** [8d 8c 8h] [Qs]

johan glans: bets $14.35 and is all-in

QueHoraEs: calls $14.35 and is all-in

*** RIVER *** [8d 8c 8h Qs] [Jh]

*** SHOW DOWN ***

johan glans: shows [Ac 5c As 9d] (a full house, Eights full of Aces)

QueHoraEs: shows [5s 8s 4h 3h] (four of a kind, Eights)

QueHoraEs collected $48.05 from pot

This sucked, however

[rjpageuk]

I've heard they're super-soft, just sounds like tight is right basically, wait for everyone else to bust out and try to avoid flips. but does chip-expectation translate to tourney expectation? I'm not sure how that works. Sucks to be runbad though. I've been running like god for the last 10k hands at omaha, and it's nice, but the inevitable downswing is going to be brutal I'm sure.

From my relatively limited experience it seems standard to call UTG raises in MP with A7o then stack off on 7 high flops on the first level, which is nice.

I have been playing a ludicrously tight style, I fold anything other than QQ+,AK for the entire first few levels until I get to ~ 10BB in stack then just shove every time it is open folded to me on the BTN/SB/CO sometimes depending on other stack sizes. Just need to pay attention to stack sizes.

Wrt tourney expectation, not sure how HEM calculates your expected return, but it does chip all in ev calcs which is mainly what I referred to. Not sure how this is then converted to expected tourney return. If anything it will underestimate as there are so many donks in these tourneys shoving their 10BB stacks on the bubble with someone with 1BB left

Glad things are going well for you in omaha, I expect that game to be a lot more swingy than NLHE so I dont think I could cope!

[Poet]

Pretty neat eh?

Sexy. Is that full ring or 6 max?

[mayor_mike_haggar]

6-max. I'm about a 5bb/100 winner over a sample of about 80k or so. I'd prefer full ring due to less rake, but it's just a massive nitfest most of the time. 6 max is where it's at these days. I'm probably moving up to 50 soon, as I'm absurdly overrolled for 25, though the inevitable downswing will soon sort all that out

[Poet]

Move up. Lose 10 buyins, move back down and grind. Otherwise, do it!

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Yeah, probably should really, games at 50 can't be that much harder, and rake should hopefully be less significant. Might go and grind at full tilt, as I've yet to claim their bonus/get rakeback.

Only problem is that 10 buying swings really aren't that uncommon!

[mayor_mike_haggar]

I'll probably keep going till I've got about 50 buyins for the next level, 40 isn't enough for me to take a swing and keep playing safely, I think.

[rjpageuk]

Yeah, probably should really, games at 50 can't be that much harder, and rake should hopefully be less significant. Might go and grind at full tilt, as I've yet to claim their bonus/get rakeback.

Rakeback is amazing. I get ~ 3BI a month from it playing around 10k hands. No idea if rake ends up being higher or lower for Omaha.

I also second Poets advice re: move up with a 10BI shot, if you lose dont feel bad about moving back down.

It doesnt matter how many BI you have, it will always feel scary playing a level higher than you are used to. It only takes a few thousands hands to get used to it though. Maybe you could even start mixing in half and half sessions (how many tables do you play? Maybe try half at new level).

[mayor_mike_haggar]

I usually 4 table, I certainly can't manage any more in plo, and all the mass multi tablers I see are really bad nits who must just live off rakeback. I prob should move up, as 50 can't be much worse than 25, maybe while grinding out the bonus on FT to cover myself.

thought I'm not sure if HEM works on FT or not...

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Fucking hell, here's the downswing

Lost a few more flips and 60/40s after this too. 6 fucking buyins in an evening, as a pretty good favourite most of the time (or calling getting 2.1). Not to mention the idiots who kept hitting their gutshots. IN OMAHA.

[Chaz]

Fucking hell, here's the downswing

Lost a few more flips and 60/40s after this too. 6 fucking buyins in an evening, as a pretty good favourite most of the time (or calling getting 2.1). Not to mention the idiots who kept hitting their gutshots. IN OMAHA.

Join the club. The last few days have been horrendous. Nearly every time i'm getting my money all in ahead and getting sucked out on the turn and/or river, quite often both. A couple of choice selections were flopping the nut flush in a highly raised preflop pot and losing to quads on the turn, and also some complete moron going all in UTG ahead of me after a flop of 289 rainbow when i'm holding 89, I call, and he turns over AQ off suit. As soon as he does this, from my previous form, I know roughly what the next two cards will be. Ace then a queen of course.

Plenty of other instances of going in way ahead and getting called by idiots, which is usually the perfect situation, but time after time they are spiking 2 or even 1 outers after we've got our money in. Good times.

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Apparently playing plo drunk is the best way in the world to run like God. I'm up about 8 buyins through miracle flops, awful opponents and absurd suckouts. Woo!

[mayor_mike_haggar]

oh man I'm at a table with 3 spewy 70/30s who think tptk is worth stacking with, and two nits who don't committ with less than top set. This table is perfect. Either i get paid off or all my bluffs work. 5buyin stack in 40 minutes!

[mayor_mike_haggar]

holy shit. Of my last 8 all ins, in which I've had an average equity of 55%, I have won precisely zero. Zip. Fuck all. Nothing. that's 8 fucking buyins goodbye then. Choicest was the retard who shoved over my straight with bottom 2 pair and hit a boat on the river. I hate this game sometimes.

[mayor_mike_haggar]

hooray, i actually managed to win a hand where someone was drawing dead against me on the turn. Will miracles never cease?

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Haha, oh man. I was just mucking about in a $2 heads up sng, and I got up against some guy who after I won a few pots against him he just started shoving pre. About the 3rd time he did this I picked up AA, which he somehow managed to absolutely crush with k5o. I'm loving playing these games as a 5 minute muck about, but I think they're preparing me badly for the HU tourney which will be against people who can actually think.

[Darragh]

Not technically a bad beat, but still pretty sick!

SB (t1420)

BB (t2275)

UTG (t2470)

UTG+1 (t2975)

Hero (MP1) (t1240)

MP2 (t1570)

CO (t1455)

Button (t1595)

Hero's M: 27.56

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K

1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero bets t120, 1 fold, CO raises to t300, Button raises to t1595 (All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls t1120 (All-In), CO calls t1155 (All-In)

Flop: (t4225) 9, 6, 4(3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t4225) Q(3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t4225) A(3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t4225

Results:

Button had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).

Hero had K, K (one pair, Kings).

CO had K, K (one pair, Kings).

Outcome: Button won t4225

[mayor_mike_haggar]

haha, ouch

[Darragh]

RAGE.

saw flop | saw showdown

Button (t2355)

Hero (SB) (t7180)

BB (t4400)

UTG (t1065)

Hero's M: 17.95

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, A

UTG bets t1040 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t940, BB calls t840

Flop: (t3220) 2, 3, 4(3 players, 1 all-in)

Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (t3220) 7(3 players, 1 all-in)

Hero checks, BB checks

River: (t3220) 3(3 players, 1 all-in)

Hero checks, BB bets t400, Hero folds

Total pot: t3220

Main pot: t3220 between BB and UTG, won by UTG

Results:

BB had 9, 10 (one pair, threes).

UTG had 9, K (one pair, threes).

Outcome: UTG won t3220

Bluffed me out of an EMPTY FUCKING SIDEPOT WITH TEN HIGH, on the bubble, forcing me to fold the hand that would have burst the bubble. One of the few things in the poker that makes me genuinely angry.

[rjpageuk]

Bluffed me out of an EMPTY FUCKING SIDEPOT WITH TEN HIGH, on the bubble, forcing me to fold the hand that would have burst the bubble. One of the few things in the poker that makes me genuinely angry.

I must admit these kind of things make me angry too in a way bad beats dont anymore.

You see some genuinely amazing stuff playing double or nothing tournaments. I once saw a guy bluff shove 10BB on the btn with a suited connector (and was called by the BB with Ax with around 10BB) when UTG had 1BB left and only one more person needed to go out before it was over.

[mayor_mike_haggar]

The call by Ax (unless it's a decent ace, I guess) is much, much worse. Might as well fold when he's likely to be 70/30 at best, since the utg will almost certainly go out next hand. The button's shove sounds defensible, really.

[Darragh]

The call by Ax (unless it's a decent ace, I guess) is much, much worse. Might as well fold when he's likely to be 70/30 at best, since the utg will almost certainly go out next hand. The button's shove sounds defensible, really.

You're right about the BB's call being worse, but I really don't think the shove is in any way justifiable in a Double or Nothing tourney. Those are purely about survival, and not chip accumulation. Shit, you could even fold Aces from the button there, as there's an excellent chance that the tournament will be over on the very next hand.

[mayor_mike_haggar]

Holy christ, that Isildur guy who's been playing highstakes managed to drop about 3.5million last night against Brian Townsend, who ran about 2.8million over ev in just under 4k hands.

Absolutely ill.

[Darragh]

Oh, for the love of...

Been playing a bunch of SNGs tonight, and I'm running fucking abysmally. To add to the QQ losing to 22 all-in pre-flop in the SNG we played in earlier (which also had a last-longer bet that the hand put me out of the running for), I've had the following hands, all before the flop, tonight:

QQ loses to A6 (two sixes on the flop)

KK loses to 99 (nine on the flop)

99 loses to T6 (yeah...LOL) (Ten on the river)

AK loses to A7 (seven on the river)

And 4 races, all of which I lost. And I'm sure there're more, but this is all I can remember.

*sigh* For the first time in a while, I'm back in the "waiting for the beat when you get it in as a 4-1 favourite" mode.

[Retroid]

Not a beat per such but on the betfair freeroll I was 10th place, needing to to be int the top 9 for a place in the final, then the server goes down! I'd better get a ticket!