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Posts posted by rjpageuk

  1. Liverpool have definitely been giving up a lot more chances than we have in the past, especially the season that we won the league. It is definitely something we need to work on. I do agree with this.


    However, my comments regarding Chelsea - they are somehow massively over performing in how many goals they have scored (26 goals from 18.7 xG) and in how many goals they are conceding (3 goals from 10.2 xGA).


    I think it would not be fair to describe them as being very tight at the back this season - if anything they have had a worse problem than Liverpool in giving up chances it just hasnt ended up in them conceding many goals.


    Obviously things can change going forward - often hot spells lead to confidence and teams just get better and better and that may well happen with Chelsea this year.


    EDIT: Man City have been by far the tightest team in defence this season. They seem to have a habit of switching off and not getting results this season though, lets hope that continues!

  2. 5 minutes ago, Gabe said:

    Brighton are a solid team these days, but even so you would expect us to beat them - especially being 2-0 up - it's poor points dropped at home. I know it's early days still but Chelsea going 3 points clear already looks quite ominous, not just because of their points, but they are defending like an old Mourinho side and so, so tight at the back and, importantly, they have full-backs that are basically doing what Robertson and TAA have been doing for us.


    The stats havent updated yet today but Chelsea have given up 10.0 xGA this season and Liverpool 9.5 xGA, thats likely to turn around a bit today but Chelsea have been running insanely hot this season.

    Obviously they can get better but if they keep playing like they have been so far they wont be winning the league.

  3. I thought the whole point in VAR was correcting obvious mistakes like that.


    I am surprised people are hand waving it away as what happens in football - it is very rare for there to be such a blatant example as that. Kane has literally given up possession of the ball in order to move into a defender making a normal attempt to block the cross.


    Saying that the defender has been stupid here is just bizarre to me - should defenders no longer try to block crosses by sliding well away from an attacker?


    No attack was impeded by the actions of the defender as the only way contact could be initiated was by Kane giving up possession so the ball was going off the pitch.

  4. The thing I found interesting about the Saka one is that it was reviewed on VAR and you can clearly see it comes off Saka's knee last but yet they let the corner still stand.


    I guess VAR cant overturn the corner decision and they could only check the penalty? It is all such a mess.

  5. For some reason for both Van Dijk's and Mane's offside decisions the Liverpool line was drawn from half way along the players arm.


    The Mane one is nothing to do with going frame by frame from when the ball is played is it? Look at the red line in the picture, its coming from Mane's arm.

  6. 28 minutes ago, ryodi said:

    The first side with a competent defence we face is going to beat us. It's just like last season with a weak defence, Firmino's final ball not sure working and shot after shot being blocked. But Leeds are a good side and will be difficult for everyone so I'm happy to get away with three points and beating United in the penalties table already.


    The xG for the game was 3.15 vs 0.27.


    Sure our defence has been making mistakes it wasnt making for most of last season but every team has also been scoring pretty much every shot vs us too since lockdown - that cant keep happening.


    What an amazing start to the season - we really seem to just be able to win whatever happens.

  7. We are just a ridiculous team nowadays. Those goals were all amazing and it is such fun watching Liverpool almost every game.


    Have to say Genk looked really good too today I thought they played pretty well and still got hammered.

  8. I dont see what is so weird about it - Man U have struggled to score all season but have been rock solid in defence. In fact Man U have the best defensive stats out of any team in the Premier League this season.

    Their issue is scoring goals and especially scoring goals against defensive sides. They have scored only 10 goals all season and 5 of those are against Chelsea and Liverpool - two teams that attacked them and left space on the counter.


    It was always going to be a close game and in the end the small decisions cost us a win in the game.

  9. Arsenal have 4 points more this season than they got last season.


    You usually expect to need around 70 points for top 4 which is about where the teams are this season. I think it just appears worse this season because Chelsea / Man U / Tottenham / Arsenal have all been in terrible form to finish the season and because Liverpool and Man City got so many points.

  10. Even if, say, Arsenal won the Europa League and Liverpool won nothing I wouldnt trade seasons with them.


    I have loved watching Liverpool play this season they have been amazing and I expect them to be amazing next season too. Irrelevant of whether we win anything or not this year it is exciting being a Liverpool fan.

  11. 24 minutes ago, Shimmyhill said:


    Good thing about stats is you can use them to suit your cause... Kane has scored his tally in less time and with a higher goals per min - that’s before you add shots on targets and assists so yeah but yeah, one particular stat where the clearly better player has missed loads of games and had two periods back from injury is slightly worse.


    Add in non prem league games and all of Kane’s stats are better...


    You are moving the goal posts. You stated that Mane is possibly the most wasteful striker in the league to back up your point that he shouldn't be in the team of the year and compared him to Son/Kane and now you want to talk about goals per minute? What does that have to do with how wasteful a player is?


    Yes Kane has scored at a higher rate in terms of goals/min than Mane, but he also takes a lot more shots.

  12. 24 minutes ago, Shimmyhill said:

    Lols, how is Mane in there, he isn’t the best striker in Liverpool let alone  miles behind Kane and Son and possibly the most wasteful striker in the league :lol:


    18 goals from 80 shots (and xG of 14.39) for Mane vs 17 goals from 102 shots (and xG of 16.12) for Kane says otherwise.

  13. 3 hours ago, feltmonkey said:

    It gets misinterpreted too. When Burnley were doing very well last season playing a very defensive, very organised style, people brought up their xG statistics to try and show that they were somehow lucky, rather than that they as a unit were dogged and habitually got into position to block shots, and didn't let opposition forwards have clear chances very often. They defended deep and in numbers, Tarkowski and Mee are quite old school defenders who throw themselves into the way of shots, and behind them was a very tidy and in-form goalkeeper in Pope. Their xG was used to "prove" that their run was entirely down to luck, but xG simply does not account for good defending, or at least this kind of last-ditch defending. A more interesting use of the stat might have been to look into why they were performing above xG, but it's just dismissed as luck.


    Tarkowski and Mee have been the first choice centre backs for Burnley all season this season too though so what has changed? It is definitely true that Pope had an extraordinarily good season last season (in a similar way to De Gea). By way of comparison Burnley conceded 39 goals last season with an xGA of 52, and this season they have conceded 57 with an xGA of 55.


    The basic argument presented against using xG was simply that Burnley had similarly "lucky" stats the season before too and so it was more likely a problem with the model. At the time I posted an article from statsbomb showing that if you used a longer timeline this didnt hold so true, and I notice they have now posted a new article (on both Burnley and Man U from earlier in the season after only four games, but in fact the stats have continued in pretty much the same way since then to now) - https://statsbomb.com/2018/09/are-manchester-united-and-burnley-just-regressing-to-the-mean/.


    My explanation is just that the level of variance is so high that you cant even expect things to be close to levelling out over a season. Even 38 games is not a lot of data - you might use this to question the value of a system where it cant even be relied on over the course of an entire season but it always comes back to the point that it is the best we currently have access to, and that even if it is subject to huge variance it is still a lot more reliable than the actual results in predicting the future.

  14. 16 minutes ago, Fry Crayola said:

    This is mostly meaningless guff in isolation. A guy takes a speculative shot from 30 yards which hits a defender and loops off a goalkeeper, anyone can tell that it's fortunate. What is xG telling us here that we don't already know? In a single match, xG can tell the difference between a team being poor and a team being unlucky, but generally that's clear from watching the game anyway. It adds little. 


    You say it is clear from watching the game but that's not how the narrative goes either in terms of how the match analysts / commentators explain the game or in terms of how most fans post about how a game went. Most fans are not aware of how lucky or unlucky their team has been in any given season or even on a match by match basis. Your natural bias remembers events where your team missed chances (or increases their quality) and forgets about events where the other team missed chances.


    Compare the posts in the relevant threads here to say Man U's performance vs Arsenal to their performance vs PSG. Almost every fan and match commentator / analyst has completely results oriented thinking.


    The last time I brought up xG on this board was with relation to explaining how lucky Burnley were during last season and that they should have expected to be caught up in the relegation battle. This was rejected by the result Burnley fan (forgotten your handle sorry), and in general was not well received so I dropped it. This season they are back to performing pretty much as you would expect in xG.


    Last season one of the other big stories xG wise was how lucky Man U were particularly with regard to goals conceded. When I pointed this out it was also badly received - De Gea is just a world class shot shopper - of course he is stopping all these shots. This season they are back to performing pretty much as you would expect in xG.


    You cannot expect your brain to well assess probability without help because it doesnt.

  15. 2 hours ago, Chooch said:

    Doesn't the xG from this game show that while United had this coming this shouldn't have been the game it came in?


    Yes but there is no game that it "should come in". The luck happened in the past and is not relevant for future predictions.


    2 hours ago, Chooch said:

    On another point does xG take into account the player who the chance has fallen to?  Or in theory does that not matter?


    No it doesnt, and yes it does matter. You expect the best players to perform above xG over a decent sample size.


    Gotters - there is always resistance to posting xG data in the football threads. I have given up. I have no idea why when it comes to sport people use a different methodology to assess results or predict the future than they would in pretty much every other field. 

  16. xG for the game was 2.2 - 0.5 which is about as good as it gets for a game of this magnitude. I think saying that Bayern frustrated our attack is just results oriented thinking - we just missed our chances.


    I do think the second half performance is a little bit of a worry as we have a number of times already this season seemed to run out of momentum/steam in the second half. I guess in Europe the psychology changes as conceding a goal when it is 0-0 is pretty disastrous.

  17. I think it is very harsh to say Lovren and Trent performed poorly. Sure pretty much every chance Man City created could be tracked back to Lovren, but Man City are a world class side, and they had the lowest xG they have had all season at Home. Our entire team were the reason for that including the defenders. Both their goals were excellent finishes from low % scoring opportunities [EDIT: Man City's xG was at 0.3 on the 80th minute, ours was 1.2, their chances after that came with us chasing the game].


    I think the small things went against us last night, and a draw was a fair reflection of the game and would have been an excellent result for us.

  18. 1 hour ago, skittles said:

    what does elite all characters mean? great analysis, thank you, please keep it up!


    In online quick play mode if you get your GSP high enough (currently around 2.6m, but is constantly increasing - might be top 5% of players?) you play in "elite" mode. It is a pretty major task to try to do this with every character.



  19. 1 hour ago, Fallows said:


    I'd need to create the lobby before finding out the Arena ID, though. No way of doing that 2 hours before planned.


    Can people search by lobby name? I've added the lobby details to my post anyways.


    I thought you could search by lobby name but you can only search by lobby id which is apparently not the same thing. Definitely go back to the friends idea!

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